Silver (XAG) Forecast: Neutral Silver Outlook Holds as PCE Data Miss Fails to Move Market

Muted Response to PCE Data Suggests Market Well-Positioned

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $33.50, slightly lower but largely unchanged after April’s U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report confirmed moderating inflation. The PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.1% for the month and 2.1% year-over-year—slightly below expectations. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, also rose 0.1% on the month, while the annual rate eased to 2.5%, just below the 2.6% forecast.

Despite the softer inflation print, silver showed little reaction. Traders had largely anticipated the data, and the subdued move reflects a broader pause in precious metals as the market assesses the next catalyst. Consumer spending slowed to 0.2% in April from 0.7% in March, reinforcing a cautious tone. At the same time, personal income rose 0.8%, lifting the savings rate to 4.9%—its highest level in nearly a year.

At  13:36 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $33.14, down $0.18 or -0.55%.

Technical Levels Define the Current Range

Silver continues to consolidate in a narrow range, with price action locked between two key technical levels. Support remains at the 50-day moving average of $32.70, which has held through several tests this month. On the upside, resistance is firmly established at $33.70, capped by a minor double-top.

A confirmed break above $33.70 would likely trigger fresh buying interest, with the next target area around $34.59–$34.87. A close below $32.70, however, would shift attention to the 200-day moving average near $31.56 and suggest renewed bearish momentum.

Trade Policy and Fed Uncertainty Limit Market Direction

Tariff-related headlines continue to influence market sentiment. Although the inflation impact has been minimal so far, the potential for higher costs and weaker industrial demand remains. President Trump’s sweeping 10% import duties and selective reciprocal tariffs were recently reinstated on a temporary basis by an appeals court, complicating the policy outlook.

Meanwhile, a rare meeting between Trump and Fed Chair Powell offered no insight into future monetary policy. The Fed emphasized its independence and refrained from any forward guidance, keeping traders guessing on rate cut timing.

Outlook: Neutral Until Key Levels Are Breached

With inflation softening and policy uncertainty unresolved, silver remains in a holding pattern. A breakout above $33.70 or breakdown below $32.70 will likely define the next directional move. Until then, the bias remains neutral, with volatility likely to return on trade developments or Fed commentary.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.