Silver (XAG) Forecast: PCE in Focus as Silver Market Eyes Breakout — Price Prediction Ahead

Silver Holds Firm Ahead of PCE as Traders Weigh Breakout vs. Pullback

Spot silver is grinding higher into Friday, but the market’s still boxed inside yesterday’s range — a classic sign traders aren’t ready to pick a side before the PCE print drops. It’s the last major data point before the Fed meets next week, and no one wants to get caught leaning the wrong way. Price is tight, flow is cautious, and positioning suggests traders are waiting for something with a little more bite.

At 12:48 GMT, XAGUSD is trading $58.12, up $0.98 or +1.71%.

The level everyone’s circling is $58.98. That’s the breakout spot, and buyers have been eyeing it all week, but they’re not chasing. The alternative — and the one some desks prefer — is a cleaner pullback into the short-term 50% retracement at $53.81. That zone has better risk-reward for dip-buyers, especially after the kind of year silver has delivered.

ETF Demand Keeps Buyers Engaged

Silver is lining up its second straight weekly gain, and ETF inflows are doing a lot of the heavy lifting. That steady demand has supported the market on every pause and has helped offset the hesitation tied to Friday’s inflation release. Rate-cut expectations and a softer dollar continue to give the metal a tailwind — not explosive, but steady enough to keep sellers cautious. Even with price stalling under resistance, the buying interest underneath hasn’t disappeared.

A Market Supercharged by Structural Supply Stress

The broader story hasn’t changed: silver is up about 101% this year, and that kind of performance doesn’t happen without real imbalance. A structural deficit, liquidity concerns, and its placement on the U.S. critical minerals list have all turned silver into a magnet for speculative and strategic inflows. None of those drivers look temporary, but after a run this steep, traders are naturally pickier about where they reload.

Watching How PCE Shapes Fed Expectations

Gold traders are watching the same setup, and silver will likely trade off that broader rates picture. With the market leaning toward another Fed cut next week, silver still has a supportive backdrop — but a hotter PCE reading could throw a quick punch at anything trading near highs. If the print comes in soft, though, buyers could finally have the excuse they need to test the ceiling.

Short-Term Outlook: Two Clear Paths

The market feels coiled. A soft PCE number could be enough to crack $58.98 and spark follow-through buying. A firm reading, on the other hand, probably sends silver back toward $53.81, where dip-buyers likely step in again.

Bottom line: traders are sitting tight — breakout chasers on one side, patient buyers on the other — and PCE decides who gets paid first.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.