Silver (XAG) Forecast: Rally Eyes $50.02–$51.07 Zone — Powell’s Tone to Drive Next Move

Silver Pushes Higher — But $51 Resistance Could Be a Tall Order

Silver is catching a lift midweek, tagging along with gold’s rebound ahead of the Fed. Spot XAG/USD is trading higher, closing in on the key retracement zone between $50.02 and $51.07 — a technical pocket that could cap this rally unless buyers step up in size. That’s the battleground. A clean break above $51.07 would be a statement and shift the tone in a big way. Until then, sellers are likely waiting in the weeds.

At 14:40 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $48.30, up $1.22 or +2.60%.

Gold’s Bounce Is Doing the Heavy Lifting

Let’s not sugarcoat it — silver’s move is being pulled higher by gold, not its own fundamentals. Spot gold bounced nearly 2% after tagging $3886.46, a three-week low. The rally is driven by bargain-hunting, short-covering, and speculation that central bank reserve managers are dipping a toe back in.

Traders are also positioning into today’s Fed rate decision, where a 25bp cut is all but priced in. But the real market mover will be Powell’s press conference. If he hints at winding down QT or takes a more dovish tone, gold could rip higher — and silver likely follows.

Rate Cut Priced In, But Dollar Strength Is a Wild Card

The bullish case for silver hinges on how markets digest Powell’s tone. There’s already chatter from Bank of America and Deutsche Bank that the Fed could end QT this month. That would reinforce the bid in non-yielding assets like gold and silver. But the U.S. dollar isn’t rolling over just yet. It’s firming up on improving U.S.-China trade sentiment and safe-haven unwinds. If the dollar catches another leg higher post-Fed, silver’s upside may stall right into resistance.

Key Levels: Watch the 50-Day and Retracement Zones

The current rally has room up to $51.07 — the top of the retracement zone. A breakout there puts $54.49 in sight. But if this push loses steam, look for dip-buyers around the 50-day at $45.03. That’s the first line of defense. Below that, the prior top at $44.22 and major support at $41.40 could come into play if sellers regain control.

Bottom Line: Bulls in Control for Now — But the Fed Will Decide the Next Move

Silver’s riding gold’s coattails into resistance. Buyers are testing the waters, but the real tell will come after Powell speaks. If gold gets the green light, silver could crack $51. If not, the retracement zone may hold — and the pullback could be sharp.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.