Silver (XAG) Forecast: Reversal After New High Raises Volatility Risks in Silver Market

Silver Pulls Back After Hitting a New Record High

Spot silver ended Friday on a weaker note after printing a fresh all-time high earlier in the session. Prices surged to $64.67 before slipping to a $61.95 close, down 2.60%. The higher high followed by a lower close produced a classic closing price reversal top, signaling that buyers stepped aside after an aggressive week-long rally.

Profit-Taking Emerges After Fed-Fueled Strength

The pullback reflected profit-taking rather than a broader trend change. Silver has been one of the strongest assets in the precious-metals space this month, helped by the Federal Reserve’s latest quarter-point rate cut and expectations for additional easing next year.

Lower interest rates, a softer labor backdrop, and gold’s surge above $4,300 all contributed to strong upside momentum before Friday’s reversal took shape.

Yields and Dollar Move Against Metals Late in the Session

Silver’s fade into the close also tracked moves in the bond and currency markets. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked higher late in the day, reducing appetite for non-yielding assets.

The U.S. dollar saw mild strength as well, trimming some of the support that had helped drive precious metals to historic levels earlier in the week. Even with those headwinds, underlying sentiment across commodities stayed firm, with gold, copper, and energy markets generally holding higher ground.

Traders Watching the First Key Breakdown Level

Friday’s reversal puts attention on the $60.52 pivot. A breakdown through that price confirms the bearish reversal pattern and opens the door toward the next retracement markers at $56.65 and $55.10. The broader uptrend, however, remains intact while silver stays above the 50-day moving average at $52.14, keeping longer-term bulls in control.

Positioning Expectations Into Early Next Week

Short-sellers may probe the downside after the reversal pattern, but the current trend keeps most retail traders focused on potential buying opportunities on deeper pullbacks. Strong physical demand, continued ETF interest, and supportive expectations around the Federal Reserve remain key themes traders are watching as the market cools off from record highs.

Short-Term Market Forecast: Cautious Bullish Tone

Silver heads into next week with a cautious bullish tone, provided the market holds above $60.52. Holding that level would suggest Friday’s pullback was a routine correction within an established uptrend. A move back through $64.67 cancels the reversal and reopens momentum toward new highs, while a confirmed break below the pivot increases the chance of a deeper retracement toward the mid-$50s.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.