Silver (XAG) Forecast: Silver Rally Hits Records as Silver Analysis Flags Crowd Risk

Silver Pushes to Record Highs — But Is the Market Getting Too Crowded?

Spot silver keeps grinding higher, and Thursday’s move to a fresh record at $62.89 shows buyers still have the upper hand. That said, the market is starting to look a little stretched — especially with price widening out from the 50-day moving average at $51.85. The trend is bullish, no debate there, but when silver outruns its own support structure by this much, traders usually start asking the same question: who’s left to chase it?

At 14:51 GMT, XAGUSD is trading $62.45, up $0.64 or +1.03%.

No Resistance Above — But the Air Is Getting Thin

With silver trading at uncharted levels, there’s no ceiling overhead. The nearest real trend marker sits all the way down at the $56.46 swing bottom, and the rally off that level has now stretched more than $6. A move of that size tends to be fine as long as buyers stay energetic — but if they step back even briefly, overleveraged longs can get squeezed out in a hurry.

The trailing 50% pullback for the $56.46–$62.89 leg sits at $59.67, and that number will keep climbing as long as silver presses higher. Traders should keep that level in the notebook; it’s the spot where dip-buyers may be willing to step in if we get a shakeout.

Industrial Tailwinds Keep Bulls in Control

Fundamentals still lean firmly toward higher prices. Silver is up 115% year-to-date — huge, even by this market’s standards — thanks to strong industrial demand, thinning inventories, and the boost from being added to the U.S. critical minerals list. That mix matters. It turns silver into a two-engine market: part monetary metal, part growth commodity. As long as industrial buyers stay active, dips may be harder to come by than bears hope.

Analysts point out that stockpiling could pick up now that silver carries critical-mineral status. If that happens, the supply tightness already visible this year could worsen, keeping bears uncomfortable. Or as Norman put it, the market has “a phenomenal tailwind” — and traders seem to be trading it that way.

Short-Term Outlook: Still Bullish, But Vulnerable to a Fast Cleanout

Near term, momentum favors the upside, but the setup is fragile enough that a sharp correction wouldn’t be surprising. The bigger silver gets above its trend markers, the more tempting profit-taking becomes. A pullback into $59.67 wouldn’t break the trend — it would probably strengthen it. A deeper slide toward $56.46 would test whether bulls really want to defend the move.

Bottom line: the market still wants higher prices, but traders should be sizing with respect for how violent silver can be when the crowd steps away for even a minute.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.