Silver (XAG) Forecast: Traders Eye $36.30 as Potential Launchpad for Silver Rally

Dollar Weakness and Fed Cut Bets Fuel Gold, but What’s Next for Silver?

Silver edged higher on Tuesday, holding the pivot at $36.30 while traders assessed whether the recent minor top at $36.84 can be cleared.

This comes as gold regained its 50-day moving average at $3320.70 and tested the critical $3347.97 retracement level, driven by a softer dollar and lower Treasury yields that continue to underpin precious metals’ bid.

At 12:05 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $36.42, up $0.30 or +0.83%.

Federal Reserve Easing Bets Grow as Trump Pressures for Cuts

President Trump’s aggressive push for a new tax-cut and spending bill, paired with threats of sharply higher tariffs by July 9, rattled markets, driving the dollar index to its lowest since early 2022.

The greenback’s slide, including a 0.64% drop against the yen and 0.33% against the Swiss franc, is increasing overseas demand for metals.

Treasury yields also retreated, with the 10-year falling to 4.195% and the 2-year to 3.709%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and silver while fueling trader interest in safe-haven assets.

Goldman Sachs now expects three Fed rate cuts this year, a notable shift from its prior forecast of just one.

The focus now turns to ADP employment data on Wednesday and non-farm payrolls Thursday for confirmation of potential labor softness, which could deepen dollar losses, adding further support to silver if volatility intensifies around the dollar and rates.

Can Silver Push Through Resistance if Gold Surges?

Gold’s potential breakout above $3348 could trigger momentum toward $3370, a scenario that may spill over to silver.

For silver, the immediate upside level is the minor top at $36.84; a clear break above this would put $37.32 in sight.

However, rejection of the $36.30 pivot risks a sharp pullback to the $35.40-$34.87 major support zone, which includes the recent bottom at $35.28. The 50-day moving average at $34.30 remains a critical longer-term support level that would likely draw buyers if tested.

Silver Market Forecast: Watch Dollar, Yields, and U.S. Data

Silver’s short-term outlook remains tied to the dollar’s weakness and bond yield trends. A Fed pivot toward deeper rate cuts, combined with U.S. fiscal and trade tensions, keeps the broader metals complex supported.

If buyers can clear $36.84 with conviction, the path toward $37.32 opens, and a gold move toward $3370-$3400 would likely pull silver higher in tandem. Failure at $36.30, however, could accelerate downside toward $35.40, providing traders with a clear technical level for risk management.

For now, watch the dollar, Treasury yields, and incoming U.S. labor data. These external drivers will define whether silver can break higher or if traders should prepare for a retest of deeper supports in the near term.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.