Silver (XAG) Forecast: Will Bears Drag Silver Market to $44 or Is a Rally Brewing?

Silver Holds Firm as Bulls Eye $51.01 Pivot While Value Zone Lingers Below

Spot silver (XAG/USD) is stabilizing on Thursday, echoing gold’s recent pause, as traders assess whether the metal is setting up for a fresh upside push or bracing for deeper value re-tests. The market is caught in a broad consolidation range, defined by the recent high of $54.49 and this week’s low at $47.53, with near-term momentum hinging on the next interaction with the $51.01 pivot.

At 10:56 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $49.03, up $0.53 or +1.10%.

$51.01: Breakout Point or Resistance Trap?

Silver’s attempt to build support follows several sessions of profit-taking, with buyers now focused on the minor resistance level at $51.01. A clean break above this threshold would signal that momentum buyers are regaining control, potentially opening a path back to the upper range at $54.49. However, with sellers likely to emerge on the initial test of this pivot, short-term positioning remains tactical.

Support at $47.53 Holds—But For How Long?

On the downside, the $47.53 low is now a key battleground. A breakdown through this level would shift focus to the deeper value zone between $44.24 and $44.22—an area reinforced by the 50-day moving average at $44.24 and the prior breakout top at $44.22. This structural support zone remains attractive to longer-term value buyers but carries risk if bearish pressure accelerates into it without stabilization.

Gold Correlation and Geopolitics Support Silver’s Floor

Traders are weighing similar strategic options in silver as in gold: buy strength into breakout levels, or wait for deeper entries at clearly defined value zones. The key difference lies in silver’s more volatile character, which may expose traders to sharper moves in both directions.

Macro uncertainty—especially around U.S.-China trade tensions and broader geopolitical risks—is preserving safe-haven demand across precious metals. Although silver tends to lag gold in terms of safe-haven flow, it benefits from improving sentiment when gold stabilizes, as is currently the case near its $4000 base.

Silver Market Outlook: Range-Bound, but Breakout Risks Rising

The silver market remains coiled between $47.53 and $51.01, with traders split between momentum chasing and value hunting. A decisive breakout above $51.01 would favor a short-term bullish case, targeting a return to the $54.49 high.

However, failure to clear that level—combined with renewed selling—could drive price action toward the $44.24–$44.22 support band. Until then, the market offers tactical setups in both directions, with breakout risk increasing as range conditions tighten.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.