Silver (XAGUSD) Price Forecast: Weak Close Risks First 20-Day Test Since Reclaim

Monday’s Weakness

Silver extended last week’s soft finish on Monday, sliding to a five-day low of $49.57 while testing support near the 10-day average. Price remains vulnerable, with a close below last week’s $50.06 low poised to confirm short-term bearish follow-through.

20-Day Critical Defense

The 20-day average at $49.07—reclaimed just one week ago—now converges with the minor swing high at $49.38 to form the primary near-term support cluster. Holding here is essential to protect the advance, as last week’s high created a potential double top structure. A rally above today’s high of $51.31 would show strength and a one-day bullish reversal.

Double Top Risk

Confirmation of a double top requires a decisive drop beneath the neckline at the higher swing low of $45.55. A sustained break below the 20-day line would significantly raise the odds of that bearish outcome and a second leg lower. However, although the lower second high indicates downward pressure the potential double top is a way from being validated.

Deeper Support Confluence

If selling pressure carries through the 20-day, the rising 50-day average at $47.57 becomes the next major objective—now positioned above both recent higher swing lows ($46.89 and $45.55). This alignment sits directly on the ascending channel centerline that caught the October low alongside the 50% retracement.

Upside Recovery Signals

Support is expected at or above the 20-day average, potentially sparking renewed strength. Today’s $49.57 low landed near the 10-day average at $49.94 and the prior record high/resistance zone at $49.81, while Friday held just above $50.06—hinting at a possible stabilizing close at or above $49.81.

Outlook

Silver sits at a pivotal juncture. A close below $50.06–$49.57 targets the 20-day/$49.07–$49.38 zone; failure there opens the 50-day and channel centerline near $47.57. Holding the 20-day keeps the bull structure intact and favors an eventual push higher. Watch today’s settlement for a clue on whether Friday’s low can be recaptured or the daily breakdown confirms with a close below it.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.