Solana Hits Five-Month Low Versus Top L1 Rival Ethereum: More Pain Ahead

Solana (SOL) is underperforming Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), during the ongoing crypto market boom.

The widely-tracked SOL/ETH instrument, which measures Solana’s performance in Ether terms, dropped to 0.054 ETH on July 10, its lowest level in five months. In other words, traders preferred to purchase Ether over Solana as the Bitcoin (BTC) price boomed to a new record high of $117,000.

Bear Flag Indicates More Pain For Solana Ahead

Solana is under pressure against Ethereum as a classic bear flag pattern plays out on the daily chart.

The setup formed after SOL/ETH dropped sharply from around 0.0665 to 0.0565 ETH in early June, creating a so-called flagpole. That was followed by a weak recovery within a rising channel, a textbook “bear flag,” often seen as a pause before the next leg down.

As of July 10, the pair has decisively broken below the flag’s lower trendline near 0.0575 ETH. The downside break, coupled with a drop in daily volumes and a relative strength index (RSI) nearing oversold levels, points to renewed bearish momentum.

Technically, the flag’s height projected from the breakdown level puts the next bearish target near 0.0475 ETH. That aligns closely with historical support near 0.0494 ETH, further validating the potential move.

Both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) are trending lower and currently acting as dynamic resistance, confirming the broader downtrend.

Put simply, unless bulls reclaim key resistance levels quickly, SOL may weaken another 10–15% versus ETH in the coming days.

Solana Price Outlook in US Dollar Terms

Solana’s dollar pair (SOL/USD) appears to be in recovery mode, riding an ascending channel that has historically provided support and resistance zones for price action.

As of July 10, SOL trades near $164, up over 8% in the last session. The bounce follows a successful test of the channel’s lower trendline and a reclaim of the 200-day EMA (~$142.78), which now serves as dynamic support.

The structure suggests a potential continuation toward the channel’s upper boundary, currently near $223. Interestingly, this level also aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the $257.68 swing high to the $96.20 low, adding confluence to the bullish target.

Momentum is building, with the RSI breaking above 50 and the 50-day EMA flipping upward. If buying pressure holds, SOL could aim for the $223 level next, a nearly 36% upside from current prices.

A break above $223 would open the door to a full retracement toward the $257 high. However, failure to breach this resistance zone could trigger a pullback toward the midline of the channel or even back to the $145–$150 support range.