Solana Price Prediction 2026: A SOL Bear Market is Possible After 1,500% Rally

Solana (SOL) could face a prolonged bear market in 2026 after posting one of the strongest rallies of the current crypto cycle, rising roughly 1,500% from its late-2022 low near $8 to highs close to $295.

Such outsized gains historically leave altcoins vulnerable to deep mean-reversion phases, especially if the top crypto Bitcoin (BTC) enters a broader bottoming cycle.

As a result, several macro-focused traders expect 2026 to act as a “bottom year” for crypto, a period that has previously coincided with sharp altcoin underperformance. Naturally, SOL will likely feel the heat.

Let’s dive deeper into the bearish Solana outlook based on technical, on-chain, and fundamental indicators.

SOL Tops Precede 80-90% Bust: Will 2026 Be Any Different?

If crypto markets enter a full bear-market bottoming process in 2026, Solana’s price action suggests that a $30–$40 range remains a realistic scenario before a durable recovery can begin.

Solana’s past cycles offer a cautionary reference point.

During the 2021–2022 bear market, SOL fell 96–97% from its peak to its trough, a collapse amplified by the bankruptcy of FTX and the heavy token accumulation by Sam Bankman-Fried during the preceding bull run.

While those extraordinary conditions may not repeat, approximately 85–90% drawdowns remain common for high-beta altcoins following exponential rallies.

Applied to the current cycle top near $295, that range implies downside targets between $30 and $40.

From a technical analysis perspective, Solana has already suffered notable damage.

Multiple long-term support levels have broken, including a multi-year rising trendline, and former 2021 support zones are poised to flip and become resistance in 2026, limiting the probability of sustained upside moves.

Solana Double Top Hints at $40-50 Target in 2026

Solana appears to be forming a double-top near the $250–$295 zone, with momentum weakening after the second peak.

Price has since lost key moving averages and is pressing horizontal support near $115. A confirmed breakdown would reinforce bearish continuation toward $50–$40 during a broader 2026 bottoming phase.

Solana’s Onchain Analysis 2026: Taker CVD Signals Selling Pressure

Another warning sign comes from Solana’s 90-day Spot Taker CVD, which tracks whether buyers or sellers are more aggressive.

As of December 2025, the indicator turned taker-sell dominant, meaning traders are hitting the sell button more often than buying at market prices.

For beginners, this suggests large players may be distributing SOL into rallies, a behaviour that often appears near market tops and supports the broader bearish outlook.

Additionally, SOL is trading below the realised price of recent buyers (3–6 months and 6–12 months), meaning many newer holders are now underwater. Historically, this zone often triggers capitulation or forced selling as confidence weakens.

The next cost basis zone, ruled by SOL traders holding the tokens for 2-5 years, was around $45, aligning with the technical bottoms discussed above.

Class-Action Lawsuit Adds Legal Overhang to Solana’s 2026 Outlook

Legal risk has emerged as an additional fundamental headwind for Solana heading into 2026.

A US federal court has allowed plaintiffs to expand a class-action lawsuit tied to activity on Solana-based token-launch platforms, most notably Pump.fun.

The amended claims now draw in Solana Labs, the Solana Foundation, and key ecosystem participants, alleging insider advantages, market manipulation, and unfair token distribution practices.

While the case does not represent a ruling on guilt, its expansion increases regulatory and reputational risk for the ecosystem.

Historically, prolonged litigation has weighed on crypto assets by dampening retail sentiment, slowing institutional engagement, and raising compliance concerns for exchanges and custodians.

Even without an adverse final judgment, the lawsuit introduces uncertainty at a time when markets are already risk-averse.

For investors, this legal overhang may act as a sentiment drag during rallies, reinforcing broader bearish and consolidation scenarios for SOL until a clearer legal resolution emerges.

Solana Roadmap 2026

In 2026, Solana’s roadmap centres on Firedancer production rollout, deeper validator decentralisation, and performance scaling for institutional-grade usage.

The focus shifts toward reliability at scale, predictable fees, and tooling for payments, DeFi, and consumer apps, aiming to support real-world adoption through a full market cycle.