S&P 500: Forecast Shifts as Meta Eases, Walmart Falls, and Fed Uncertainty Caps Gains

Wall Street Slides Mid‑Session as Walmart Drops and Traders Eye Jackson Hole

Stocks were lower by midday Thursday, with the major indexes giving back early gains as investors stayed defensive ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Friday appearance at Jackson Hole. Retail sector weakness, led by Walmart, added pressure to the tape.

Walmart Misses on Profit—How Are Tariffs Impacting Consumer Staples?

Walmart shares dropped more than 4% after missing quarterly profit forecasts, despite raising full-year guidance. The company flagged rising costs from tariffs, even as demand remained solid across income brackets. The miss weighed on the consumer staples sector, which slipped 0.9%. With Home Depot and Target also reporting this week, the market is parsing how much pricing power retailers still hold as tariffs filter through to shelf prices.

Will the Fed Deliver a Rate Cut Signal at Jackson Hole?

All eyes are now on Jerome Powell’s scheduled remarks Friday afternoon, which could offer clarity on the Fed’s stance heading into September. A softening labor market and Thursday’s mixed economic data—slower job gains versus a pick-up in business activity—have complicated expectations. While a rate cut remains likely, traders are no longer pricing it with near certainty. LSEG data shows the odds for a 25-basis-point cut now sit at 79%, down sharply from nearly 100% last week.

Where Are the Indexes Trading at Midday?

At mid-session, the Dow Jones is down roughly 0.4%, shedding over 190 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both off about 0.4%.

The move lower is broad-based, though tech losses have moderated after the sector’s earlier pullback. Names like Meta, Amazon, and AMD are trading marginally lower but off their worst levels. Concerns about stretched valuations and ongoing regulatory pressure remain key headwinds for the group.

What’s the Broader Market Saying?

Declining stocks outnumber advancers across both the NYSE and Nasdaq. Coty is among the day’s worst performers, down more than 20% after guiding for weaker sales.

Meanwhile, new highs continue to outpace new lows on the S&P 500, a sign of underlying strength even as investors lock in gains ahead of Powell’s speech.

Market Forecast: Fed Uncertainty Keeps Risk Appetite in Check

The market tone is cautious as traders look for direction from Jackson Hole. With retail earnings offering mixed signals and tariff concerns resurfacing, the focus remains squarely on whether Powell leans dovish. Until then, risk appetite is likely to stay contained, with equities drifting and bond yields responding to shifting Fed expectations.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.