S&P 500 Price Forecast – S&P 500 Continues to Hang Around the 200-Day EMA

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 09.10.23

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 initially tried to rally during the trading session, but then fell significantly to break down below the 200-Day EMA. At this point, the market then is testing the 50% Fibonacci level, which is an area that of course attracts a certain amount of attention as well. The S&P 500 will continue to be very noisy due to the fact that the jobs report was triple what was anticipated, and therefore it’s likely that the interest rates in America will remain very high. The Federal Reserve is nowhere near loosening monetary policy, and I think traders are starting to struggle with this.

If we turn around and break above the highs of the last couple of days, then the market could go look into the 4300 level. The market will continue to see a lot of volatility, but we are a bit oversold at the moment. A short-term rally could be a selling opportunity at the first signs of exhaustion, but if we were to break down below the lows of the last couple of days, then it opens up the possibility of a move down to 4200, and beyond. As we continue to dance around the 200-Day EMA, which of course is going to attract a lot of attention, but ultimately, I think this is a scenario where this is all going to be about the bond market. The bond market of course is a major mover of where we are going next, as higher interest rates continue to pound stocks.

All things being equal, you need to be cautious with your position size and therefore keep an eye on the volatility as this market could be prone for a sudden move, as there are a lot of mental gymnastics going on at the moment. All things being equal, this is a market that will continue to see a lot of volatility and choppiness, but despite the fact that Nonfarm Payroll numbers came out triple than expected, it seems as if the S&P 500 is at least stabilizing a bit during the spike in interest rates that we had seen earlier in the day. That of course is a sign of stabilization more than anything else.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.