S&P 500 Price Forecast – S&P 500 Hangs Around the 200-Day EMA

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 29.09.23

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

Late in the day on Wednesday, the S&P 500 staged a significant rally that looks like it still has a bit of influence to the Thursday session. It looks like the 200-Day EMA underneath is trying to offer quite a bit of support, and it is probably worth noting that technical traders will be involved. Furthermore, the S&P 500 might be a little oversold but any bounce at this point in time is probably going to be looked at with a certain amount of distrust.

After all, the market has to deal with higher interest rates, something that continues to be a persistent burden, as traders prefer to get a guaranteed rate instead of dealing with all of this volatility. Nonetheless, a short-term rally is more likely than not due to the hammer that formed on Wednesday, but I think that the Tuesday candlestick top will end up being a major barrier.

Alternatively, if we were to break down below the hammer from the trading session on Wednesday, then the market goes down to the 4200 level. Ultimately, this is a scenario where the market is going to continue to look at this through the prism of whether or not the economy is getting better or worse, and whether or not, perhaps even more importantly, the Federal Reserve is going to loosen monetary policy. All things being equal, we got GDP numbers during the day on Thursday that were revisions, but not enough to sway the Federal Reserve attitude. In other words, nothing has changed and I think we continue to see this more or less as a “fade the rally” market, but it is a little overdone in the short term, so those of you who are nimble enough might be able to take advantage of a tactical short-term position.

Pay attention to the interest rates in America, because if they start to climb again, that is going to be very negative for stock markets in general. The consumer still holds up fairly well in America, which keeps the Federal Reserve on the tight side of things, and the jobs numbers of course still suggest that we are going to see the same behavior out of DC.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.