S&P 500 Price Forecast – S&P 500 Sits at 200-Day EMA

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 06.10.23

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 has done very little during the trading session on Thursday in the early hours, as we are hanging around the crucial 200-Day EMA. This of course is a longer-term indicator of trend, so it captures a lot of attention in general. Ultimately, I think this is a scenario where we have to sort out whether or not the market is going to find buyers in the general vicinity, which also includes the 50% Fibonacci level, or if we are going to drop toward the 4200 region. At this point, it’s difficult to get overly bullish on stocks, but they are a bit oversold so it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see a short-term bounce.

Pay attention to the “magnificent 7”, as they continue to move the markets in general. This would be all of the usual suspects such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, etc. If we do break to the upside though, it will certainly be due to a handful of stocks, and not necessarily wide breadth in the stock market. In fact, that’s been the problem all along, it’s just so heavily concentrated and that of course is not going to change considering most of the investing these days is in passive funds, and they are all on the same companies.

That being said, we are definitely in an area that a lot of technicians will be paying close attention to, and that could make the US jobs number even more important than usual. With that, I think you’ve got a situation where you have to pay close attention to the reaction to the number on Friday, because it could give you a bit of a “heads up” as to where we are going for the next leg. Furthermore, we also will have earnings season coming rather soon, and that comes into the picture as well. In this environment, I think we may see a little bit of recovery but the 50-Day EMA above could be about as far as we get. In the short term I’m somewhat ambivalent, but longer-term I think we have to pay close attention to the date on Friday as he could give us an idea as the Federal Reserve will be paying attention to.

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