S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Market Threatening Resistance Area

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 18.04.23

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 has had a quiet Monday, as we continue to look at the overhang of resistance near the 4200 level as a major barrier. If we can break above there, then the S&P 500 really takes off to the upside, perhaps gaining another 100 points quickly. However, there are a lot of concerns out there right now, and of course we are starting earnings season. In other words, it’s likely that we could see plenty of volatile concerns out there. Ultimately, I do think that this is a scenario where we will eventually see the market have to make up its mind, and therefore we need to be cautious about jumping in with big positions.

Having said that, the 4100 level underneath looks to be support, so we could pull back to that area on signs of negativity. That being said, Wall Street seems to be focusing on the idea that perhaps the Federal Reserve will come bail them out again, and therefore I’m not even sure what influence the earnings season will be going forward.

In the short term, then I think we probably continue to go back and forth in a 100 point range between the 4100 level in the 4200 level above. This is a situation that I think will continue to see a lot of volatility and choppiness, but at the end of the day I think we will have to make a decision rather soon about which direction we break. If we break to the downside, then the measured move is down to where the 200-Day EMA is, which sits just above the 4000 level.

Keep in mind the need to pay attention to the US dollar, because it does tend to have a little bit of a negative correlation to this market and it’s probably worth noting that Monday has seen some US dollar strength. That is a correlation that has been relatively reliable, and therefore your secondary and tertiary indicators might actually be in the currency markets.

I would be cautious about position sizing, as we are extraordinarily sensitive to headline noise at the moment, and of course geopolitical concerns.

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