S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Market Waits for FOMC

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 21.09.23

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 rallied slightly during the trading session on Wednesday pre-market in the futures market, and it looks like we are trying to find plenty of support underneath near the 50-Day EMA, and the uptrend line that I have marked on the chart. All things being equal, the market is likely to continue to follow along the path of this rising wedge, if we break down below the lows of the trading session on Tuesday, that could change things.

All things being equal, if we were to break down below the bottom of the Tuesday session, then the market opens up the possibility of a move down to the 4400 level. On the other hand, if we turn around a break above the top of the hammer that formed during the trading session on Tuesday, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the top of the wedge. All things being equal, this is a scenario where we continue to see upward pressure, but I think we could see a little bit of volatility due to the FOMC and perhaps more importantly, the press conference afterward.

All things being equal, you will have to be cautious due to the volatility in the market and keep your position size reasonable. In general, this is a scenario that has been very noisy along the way, and therefore I think that there will be a lot of attention paid to how the market “feels” about the statement and even more importantly the press conference. The interest rate decision itself should be a nonevent, but if the FOMC ended up raising interest rates, that could shock the market and send it into a tailspin.

In general, this is a market that continues to find plenty of noisy trading ahead of it, and I don’t think that will change anytime soon. After all, you need to keep in mind that the Wall Street traders out there will seemingly always find a narrative to take on and start buying stocks. All things being equal, this is a situation where the “buy on the dips” scenario could come out over the next couple of days, as we have seen multiple times along the way.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.