S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Shutter On Higher Interest Rates

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 03.03.23

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 has fallen a bit during the trading session on Thursday, reaching down below the previous downtrend line that made at the top of the channel that we have been in for some time. That being said, it looks like the market is more likely than not going to find a little bit of support in this area, but I don’t necessarily think that the S&P 500 is ready to take off to the upside. You should also take a look at the 4000 level just above, which is of course a large, round, psychologically significant figure. The area just above there also has the 50-Day EMA and the 200-Day EMA indicators just above it, and therefore it’s likely that we could see that as a barrier as well.

Short-term rallies will more likely than not see plenty of sellers above, and therefore I think it’s more of a “fade the rally” type of market, but it also probably worth noting that this is more or less a short-term type of situation. If we were to break above those moving averages, then it’s possible that we could go to the 4100 level, an area that previously has been support. Based upon “market memory”, it makes sense that it should be resistance if we did get above there.

That being said, if we were to break down below the bottom of the hammer from the trading session on Thursday, then it opens up a move down to the 3900 level, possibly down to the 3800 level underneath. The 3800 level courses a large, round, psychologically significant figure that will attract a lot of attention, and of course we have seen a significant bounce from that area previously, after we pulled back during the month of December of last year.

Anything below that level would be catastrophic, opening up another 200 points to the downside, maybe even more than that. I don’t necessarily think that happens easily, but at this point I still feel relatively negative about this market in general, and therefore I’m looking for selling opportunities on signs of exhaustion, but I also recognize that you need to be in and out of the trade rather quickly.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.