S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Recover After Shocking Jobs Number

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 05.12.22

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 has fallen a bit during the trading session on Friday to break down below the 200-Day EMA. By doing so, it certainly looks as if we continue to see a lot of volatility, and therefore I think the downtrend line will continue to have questions asked of it. If we break down below the bottom of the hammer, then it’s possible that we go down to the 3920 level. On the other hand, if we turn around a break above the top of the candlestick and by extension the downtrend line, the 4100 level will be targeted.

Keep in mind that the jobs number on Friday was hotter than anticipated, so that obviously has a certain amount of negativity attached to it, and that will be what ends up determine where we go in the short term. Given enough time though, I do think that we have to ask whether or not there is going to be follow-through or not. Keep in mind that the “Santa Claus rally” could come into the picture, and therefore traders may try to pad books to have their clients think they are owning all of the correct things.

Ultimately, the next couple of weeks will be noisy and of course everybody is going to be paying close attention to the Federal Reserve meeting in December, because it did give a bit of a “heads up” as to what the Fed is going to do going forward. Wall Street has convinced itself that the Federal Reserve may not be ready to pivot yet, but it certainly is going to at least slow down rate hikes. That has been part of the reason why we have rallied.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.