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S&P500 and Nasdaq Index: Consumer Data Sinks Sentiment, Super Micro, Moderna Rally

By:
James Hyerczyk
Updated: May 16, 2025, 16:35 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • S&P 500 stalls mid-session but remains up 4.6% for the week as U.S.-China trade relief lifts broader market sentiment.
  • University of Michigan’s sentiment index drops to 50.8—second lowest ever—raising red flags on consumer spending.
  • Inflation expectations surge to 7.3%, fueling concerns over persistent price pressure and rattling investor mood.
Nasdaq 100 Index, S&P 500 Index, Dow Jones

S&P 500 Stalls After Weak Consumer Data but Holds Weekly Gains

The S&P 500 paused on Friday after a four-day rally, weighed by a weaker-than-expected consumer sentiment report. Despite the midday stall, the index remains on track for a strong weekly gain as easing U.S.-China trade tensions helped reignite risk appetite across equities.

By midday, the S&P 500 inched up 0.1%, with the Nasdaq Composite up 0.07% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average adding 30 points.

Week to date, the S&P 500 is still up 4.6%, the Nasdaq has surged over 6%, and the Dow has advanced 2.6%, marking a robust rebound from recent lows.

How Did the Consumer Sentiment Data Impact the Market Mood?

Investor enthusiasm cooled after the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 50.8 in May, down from 52.2 in April. This marks the second-lowest level on record, raising concerns about weakening household confidence. Adding to worries, inflation expectations for the next year rose sharply to 7.3% from 6.5%, while long-term projections climbed to 4.6%.

These sentiment readings have amplified investor anxiety about the consumer’s willingness to spend, especially with tariffs still part of the broader economic narrative. President Donald Trump’s announcement that new tariff letters could be issued in the coming weeks has further clouded the outlook.

Which Sectors Are Holding Up Best This Week?

Despite the headline hesitation, several sectors maintained solid gains on Friday. Health care led with a 0.9% rise, followed by real estate and industrials, each up over 0.6%. Consumer discretionary and financials added around 0.5% each. Technology edged lower by 0.27%, with energy also in the red, slipping 0.43%.

Daily Moderna Inc.

Top-performing stocks included Moderna (+4.99%), Fiserv (+4.39%), and Super Micro Computer (+3.52%).

Daily Applied Materials, Inc.

On the downside, Applied Materials fell over 6% after a disappointing earnings update, while Hershey and First Solar also lagged, each down over 3%.

Are Investors Turning Too Bullish?

Sentiment indicators suggest caution may be warranted. According to the AAII survey, bullish sentiment hit 35.9%, the highest since January, while bearishness dropped to 44.4%, the lowest since mid-February. The neutral camp shrank to just 19.7%, far below the historical average of 31.5%. Traders often view this kind of crowd optimism as a contrarian signal.

What’s the Outlook Heading Into Next Week?

Market participants will watch closely for further developments on trade policy and potential volatility linked to options expiration. With more than $2.8 trillion in notional options set to expire Friday—an all-time record for May—the market could experience sharp intraday swings.

Attention will also remain fixed on consumer data and inflation indicators, especially with sentiment and pricing concerns rising. Traders may lean cautious near-term, with eyes on incoming economic signals and tariff clarity.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

About the Author

James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.

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