Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Bulls Hold the Line Above 50-Day Moving Average

Gold Holds Above Key Support as Traders Await Inflation Data and Fed Clarity

Gold prices are treading water early Monday, easing slightly from last week’s two-week high at $3378.84. The metal remains comfortably above the 50-day moving average at $3346.50, which continues to act as the near-term guidepost for price action.

So far, buyers are still leaning bullish, but with volume light and the range tight, it looks like everyone’s waiting on a clear catalyst before making their next move.

At 11:50 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $3370.95, down $0.285 or -0.01%.

Dollar Strength and Treasury Yields Putting a Cap on Upside

The dollar index is up about 0.2% today, keeping a bit of weight on gold as it inches down from Friday’s highs. Treasury yields are also ticking slightly higher across the curve, with the 10-year up near 4.28% and the 2-year yield pushing toward 3.72%.

Traders are reacting to Fed Chair Powell’s cautious comments from Jackson Hole, where he acknowledged the growing risks to the labor market while still stressing inflation remains sticky. Powell’s tone wasn’t overly hawkish, but it didn’t exactly clear the way for aggressive rate cuts either.

Key Inflation Data on Deck Could Tip the Scales

All eyes now turn to this Friday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — the core PCE price index. Expectations are for a 2.9% year-over-year rise, up from 2.8% in June. If that data comes in hotter than expected, it could push back expectations for rate cuts and give the dollar a boost, which wouldn’t be great for gold in the short term. But if the number supports a softening inflation trend, the market may quickly price in more easing.

Technical Levels in Focus as Gold Holds Its Ground

Technically, gold is still in decent shape. A push through last week’s high at $3378.84 would open the door to retesting the record highs at $3409.43 and $3439.04.

On the flip side, a drop below the 50-day MA puts the $3311.56–$3310.48 zone in focus as the next key support area. For now, the market continues to consolidate, working off some of the excess from earlier runs.

Gold Prices Forecast: Bias Tilting Bullish, But Data Will Decide

Bottom line: The bias remains slightly bullish as long as gold stays north of the 50-day moving average. Traders are clearly looking for confirmation from Friday’s inflation report before making a strong move.

If inflation shows signs of cooling and the Fed sticks with its easing path, gold could be gearing up for a run toward $3500. But again — time will tell, and until then, we’re likely to see more consolidation and choppy action.

Look at pullbacks as potential buying opportunities, but stay nimble — this market still cares a lot about the next Fed move.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.