Oil News: Crude Oil Futures Hold Above 200-Day Average as Supply Risks Intensify

Crude Oil News Today: Prices Edge Up as Supply Risks Offset OPEC+ Output Boost

Light crude oil futures edged higher early Monday, building modest upside momentum after closing above the 200-day moving average at $63.25 on August 21. That level now acts as near-term support, while the rally faces immediate resistance at the 50% retracement level of $64.56, followed by the 50-day moving average at $65.00 and minor levels at $65.41 and $66.18.

On the downside, a break below the 200-day average would shift focus to the August 13 low at $61.12—a key trigger for downside acceleration below $60.

At 10:54 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $64.12, up $0.46 or +0.72%.

Geopolitical Risk Premium Builds on Russian Infrastructure Attacks

Traders remain alert to supply-side risks as Ukraine continues drone strikes on Russian energy assets. A weekend attack set fire to the Ust-Luga fuel export terminal, while the Novoshakhtinsk refinery—capable of processing 100,000 barrels per day—was still burning on Sunday. These incidents have added a layer of uncertainty to Russian exports just as the U.S. considers fresh sanctions.

President Trump reaffirmed Friday that additional penalties would be imposed if Russia fails to advance peace talks within two weeks. He also threatened tariffs on India over its continued imports of Russian crude. While U.S. Vice President JD Vance claimed Moscow had made “significant concessions,” the market appears unconvinced. Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen said, “The market is somewhat concerned that these peace negotiations are going nowhere.”

OPEC+ Output Hikes Cap Upside Momentum

Tempering the bullish impact of Russian supply risks is the ongoing reversal of OPEC+ production cuts. With millions of barrels being added back to the market, and another supply boost likely at the September 7 meeting, bearish pressure remains in place. Hansen noted that while demand may soften into the autumn months, the bigger driver now is the ramp-up in supply.

Fed Rate Signal Lifts Risk Appetite but Demand Fears Linger

Market sentiment received a boost after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled a possible rate cut in September. While this supported broader risk assets, oil failed to catch strong momentum. Phillip Nova’s Priyanka Sachdeva pointed out that demand-side concerns—particularly the threat of Trump’s trade tariffs—are limiting gains and raising concerns over global growth.

Before making your next crude oil move, make sure you understand What Drives Oil Prices

Market Forecast: Watch Moving Averages for the Next Breakout

While geopolitical risks are giving bulls something to lean on, the broader tone remains neutral-to-bearish unless prices can hold above the 50-day moving average at $65.00. The 200-day moving average at $63.25 is now the pivot point. A decisive move above or below these levels will offer the next clear directional signal for crude oil traders.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.