Sui (SUI) has fallen out of grace since the October 10 flash crash, suffering one of the worst declines among altcoins.
On a year-to-date basis, the token has lost 57% of its value, as the market seems to have shunned this smart contracts platforms over its well-established competitors like BNB Coin (BNB) and Ethereum (ETH).
Compared to the latter, whose yearly performance stands at a 28% gain for BNB and a 7% loss for ETH, it is clear that investors don’t want to have anything to do with SUI for the time being.
In the past 24 hours alone, the token has shed 12.7% of its value, as trading volumes have spiked by 78%. At $1.5 billion, these volumes account for nearly a quarter of the asset’s circulating market cap.
The price has now tagged a key support level that we previously set forth as our bearish target in the latest Sui price prediction.
Previous Sui Price Prediction – Source: FXEmpire
A short position opened since that article came out would have yielded a nice 21% gain in just 15 days. Now that we have hit this target, the timing seems fit to analyze if SUI can keep heading downwards or if this latest wave of negative momentum may have gotten too far.
One of the reasons that could be driving SUI’s steep drop is the lack of institutional interest in the network and its native asset.
A tsunami of altcoin-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is about to hit the market, especially now that the U.S. government shutdown has ended.
The daily chart shows how relevant this $1.75 support is to Sui, as a drop below this mark could trigger a huge decline toward the $1 mark, meaning a 43% downside risk.
This sounds almost unfathomable for a token that traded at $4 just three months ago, but that’s just how the crypto market is. As volatile as it gets.
If the price bounces off this mark, we would have to see a move above the $2.4 area to confirm that the direction of the trend has reversed.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at heavily depressed levels, which increases the odds of a rebound. However, sentiment remains heavily depressed, and negative momentum seems to be accelerating rather than slowing down.
Hence, a drop to $1 could be on the table if we get a bearish breakout below $1.75 in the next few days.
Investors may be concerned that the positive momentum that the token could experience amid the launch of a SUI ETF could be lost now that a flood of other vehicles are already becoming available, much sooner than the latter.
Only Canary Capital and 21Shares have filed to get a Sui ETF listed. Canary’s ETF is already listed on the DTCC platform, meaning that it is in the pre-launch stage at least.
Nonetheless, top tokens and networks like XRP, Solana, and Ethereum seem to be capturing most of the institutional interest out there, and investors have noticed.
Sui Comps – Source: Artemis
Data from Artemis also indicates that the Sui network could still be overvalued from an ecosystem growth perspective. Currently, the network produces around $14.6 million in annual revenues, resulting in an MC/Revenue ratio of 443x.
This metric surpasses that of Solana and BNB Chain, both of which have managed to attract a higher number of developers and boast a significantly higher total value locked (TVL) across their decentralized apps.
All things considered, although Sui is one of the fastest blockchains out there, it still needs to do its homework to get more developers on board and grow its ecosystem to stay competitive at a point when institutional interest is rising.
Alejandro Arrieche specializes in drafting news articles that incorporate technical analysis for traders and possesses in-depth knowledge of value investing and fundamental analysis.