Sui Price Prediction: SUI Risk Drop to $1 as Bearish Trend Holds

Sui (SUI) has recovered in the past week, jumping by nearly 13% to $1.5 as the sell-off seems ready to take a breather.

Market conditions improved a bit lately after a strong jobs report in the United States last week and dovish comments from the head of the New York Federal Reserve.

The majority of analysts once again expect that the U.S. central bank will cut rates in December after a brief scare.

Despite this recent uptick, Sui has still dropped by 39% in the past month, and, based on our latest price prediction, we are still expecting a drop to $1 unless bullish momentum manages to invalidate the current market structure.

SUI Price Prediction: On-Chain Data Remains Heavily Depressed

On-chain data indicates that the total value locked (TVL) of the Sui network has dropped by a quarter since it peaked on October 25. This coincides with the date of the last FOMC meeting, back when Chairman Jerome Powell questioned the feasibility of a third rate cut in 2025.

Sui Total Value Locked (TVL) – Source: DeFi Llama

Expressed in Sui, the network’s DeFi TVL has declined from 889 million tokens to 661 million, reflecting investors’ bearish sentiment. DEX volumes also seem to be ready to end the month with their lowest print of the past 5 months, as traders were pushed to the sidelines by the latest selling spree.

Daily active users (DAUs) may also close the month at their lowest level since June this year, back when Sui traded at around $2.4. However, the price is much lower now at $1.5, but DAUs are higher than they were back then at 512,000 compared to 403,000 during the week ended on June 29. Recent Sui trades highlight broader market dynamics, including liquidity clusters and technical resistance levels, as trading activity adapts to changing liquidity patterns.

Most on-chain indicators are bearish at the time. When sentiment gets this pessimistic, it typically favors a bullish outlook as the market interprets this as a sign that bulls have capitulated, meaning that the price of the asset is as depressed as it may get.

Market Sentiment: Extreme Fear?

The current market sentiment surrounding SUI is a blend of cautious optimism and lingering uncertainty, reflecting the broader volatility in the crypto market. After a notable drop in the price of SUI, many traders have been driven by fear, leading to increased selling pressure across altcoins. Despite this, some analysts see signs of a potential bull run in the near future, pointing to SUI’s expanding Web3 and DeFi ecosystem and the anticipated launch of a new stablecoin as possible catalysts for recovery.

To enhance prediction accuracy, it’s important to look beyond short-term price swings and consider both technical and fundamental factors. Technical indicators, such as the exponential moving average, currently suggest that the price of SUI may be undervalued at current levels. Meanwhile, fundamental factors like circulating supply, ongoing regulatory developments, and the overall health of the SUI ecosystem play a significant role in shaping the asset’s long-term outlook.

Market conditions remain challenging, with the greed index signaling extreme fear and on-chain activity showing signs of investor hesitation. Nevertheless, manual reviews of chart patterns and technical analysis hint that SUI could be approaching a local bottom, setting the stage for a possible bull market if demand and liquidity improve. Many analysts continue to view SUI as a good investment opportunity, citing its high throughput, innovative technology, and growing developer community as key strengths.

RSI Sends Buy Signal for SUI, But Bears Are Still In Control

Would it be possible for Sui to make a comeback to $2? Looking at the daily chart, the token still needs to do some heavy lifting to get back to that level, as the market’s structure is still bearish.

SUI/USD Daily Chart (Coinbase) – Source: TradingView

Sui would have to rise past the $1.8 area in the next few days to invalidate this bearish structure. For now, the most likely outcome is that the price will retest this level from below to confirm that the selling pressure is still strong.

If that’s the case, Sui could dive to $1, meaning a 43% downside risk if we track the move from the resistance.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has sent an early buy signal after climbing above the 14-day moving average. This momentum oscillator hit an extreme level of 22, which indicated a strongly oversold situation.

This does not confirm a trend reversal, but paired with the contrarian signals mentioned earlier, it does favor the view that the market has hit a short-term local bottom. The next catalyst to watch would be the December 10 FOMC meeting, as another rate cut could embolden bulls to push SUI back to $2.

Final Thoughts

Looking ahead, Sui price prediction for 2026 will depend on key factors such as ecosystem developments and upcoming token unlock events, both of which could significantly influence long-term price projections. These elements, along with broader market trends, will shape Sui’s trajectory over the next year.