The Best Trading Opportunity Today – USD/JPY – November 20, 2015

The USD/JPY is once again setting up to be the trade of the day, but this time on the short side. It’s been a difficult week for traders because of the low volatility and the counter-trend and counter-intuitive moves.

Earlier in the week, buyers attempted a breakout to the upside over a previous main top at 123.596, but the move failed at 123.748, leading to the developing weakness and shift in momentum to the downside.

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, turned to the downside with the breaking of a pair of Gann angles. The main trend will turn on a trade through 122.217.

The short-term range is 122.217 to 123.748. The USD/JPY is currently trading inside its retracement zone at 122.983 to 122.802. The direction of the market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to this zone.

A sustained move over 122.983 will indicate the presence of buyers. A rally could develop if buyers are able to overcome the long-term downtrending angle at 123.022. It will get stronger if the market crosses to the bullish side of an uptrending angle at 123.217.

A sustained move under 122.983 will indicate the presence of sellers. It will be further solidified if the selling is strong enough to maintain the move under the long-term downtrending angle at 123.022.

The Fibonacci level at 122.802 is currently acting like support, but it is also the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside. If the downside momentum is strong enough on the move then look for the sellers to go after the swing bottom at 121.793.

The failed breakout earlier in the week and the break back under a long-term downtrending angles have set up the USD/JPY for further weakness. I like the short side of the market unless buyers are able to overcome 123.022.