The Day Ahead: Markets Brace for Earnings and Fed Signals in Busy Trading Today

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures edged higher Tuesday morning following modest gains in the prior session. S&P 500 futures rose 0.25%, Nasdaq 100 added 0.42%, and Dow futures gained 0.2%.

On Monday, the S&P 500 notched its 15th record close of 2025, finishing marginally above flat. The Nasdaq closed up 0.3%, while the Dow slipped 0.1%.

The market is navigating a confluence of drivers this week. President Trump’s announcement of a 15% baseline tariff on European imports initially spurred mild gains, but the market has largely looked through the trade development. Instead, attention is shifting to earnings and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting outcome due Wednesday.

Key Economic Releases

Several high-impact data prints are on deck today:

• 12:30 GMT: Goods Trade Balance (Forecast: -$96.4B; Prior: -$98.3B)
• 12:30 GMT: Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m (Forecast: -0.3%; Prior: -0.1%)
• 13:00 GMT: HPI m/m (Forecast: -0.4%; Prior: -0.1%)
• 13:00 GMT: S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y (Forecast: 3.4%; Prior: 2.9%)
• 14:00 GMT: JOLTS Job Openings (Forecast: 7.77M; Prior: 7.51M)
• 14:00 GMT: CB Consumer Confidence (Forecast: 93.0; Prior: 95.9%)

Markets are also positioning ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report, expected to show a slower 100,000 job gain (vs. 147,000 prior) and a slight rise in unemployment to 4.2%. Weaker labor data could reinforce expectations for a dovish Fed tone.

Notable Earnings

Earnings due before the open include:

• Procter & Gamble (PG): $1.42
• UPS (UPS): $1.79
• Merck (MRK): $2.28
• Boeing (BA): $0.02
• Johnson Controls (JCI): $1.14
• American Tower (AMT): $2.79
• AstraZeneca (AZN): $1.24
• Carrier Global (CARR): $0.87
• Corning (GLW): $0.47
• Ecolab (ECL): $1.68
• JetBlue Airways (JBLU): $0.08
• Norfolk Southern (NSC): $3.06
• PayPal (PYPL): $1.19
• Royal Caribbean (RCL): $3.21
• Spotify (SPOT): $1.33
• Sysco (SYY): $1.39
• UnitedHealth (UNH): $6.80

Earnings due after the close include:

• Visa (V): $2.42
• Starbucks (SBUX): $0.93
• Electronic Arts (EA): $1.04
• Booking Holdings (BKNG): $41.90
• Republic Services (RSG): $1.61
• Seagate Tech (STX): $1.05
• Qorvo (QRVO): $0.87
• Teradyne (TER): $0.86
• Mondelez (MDLZ): $0.86
• Varonis Systems (VRNS): $0.05
• Teladoc (TDOC): -$0.38

Technical Outlook

The S&P 500 E-mini is trading at 6,440.25. Resistance levels are 6,470 and 6,500. Support rests at 6,318.75, followed by 6,241.00, 6,161.00 (50-day MA), and 6,013.85 (200-day MA).

The Nasdaq 100 E-mini is trading at 23,603.25. Resistance is seen at 23,700 and 23,850. Support levels include 23,108.00, 22,803.00, 22,427.40 (50-day MA), and 21,442.56 (200-day MA).

The Dow E-mini is trading at 45,059. Resistance stands at 45,312 and 45,885. Support sits at 44,818, 44,423, and the converging 50-day and 200-day MAs near 43,669.00 and 43,609.00, respectively.

Outlook

Traders face a headline-heavy session as economic data and earnings results trickle in ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision. With tariff risks and inflation in focus, any surprises—hawkish or soft—could shift equity momentum sharply. Market tone remains constructive as long as earnings hold and economic data support a steady Fed policy outlook.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.