The Day Ahead: Markets Brace for Powell, ISM, and JOLTS Data Today

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures are modestly lower early Tuesday after the S&P 500 closed at another record high to end Q2. Dow futures are down 0.07%, S&P 500 futures off 0.15%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.22%.

Monday’s session saw the S&P 500 rise 0.52%, the Nasdaq gain 0.47%, and the Dow advance 0.63%, capping a quarter where the S&P 500 climbed 10.6% and the Nasdaq nearly 18% following April’s tariff-driven declines.

Traders are watching the expiration of Trump’s 90-day tariff reprieve next week, while Canada’s reversal of its digital services tax aims to facilitate negotiations, keeping cross-border trade sentiment in focus as Q3 begins.

Key Economic Releases

Tuesday’s data (GMT):

• 13:45 – Final Manufacturing PMI: Forecast 52.0 (Prior 52.0)
• 14:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI: Forecast 48.8 (Prior 48.5)
• 14:00 – JOLTS Job Openings: Forecast 7.32M (Prior 7.39M)
• 14:00 – ISM Manufacturing Prices: Forecast 69.6 (Prior 69.4)
• 14:00 – Construction Spending m/m: Forecast -0.2% (Prior -0.4%)
• Tentative – RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism: Forecast 50.1 (Prior 49.2)
• All Day – Wards Total Vehicle Sales: Forecast 15.5M (Prior 15.7M)

These data will drive Q3 positioning. A weaker ISM or JOLTS print would increase confidence in a September Fed cut, while stronger data could challenge near-term easing expectations.

Notable Earnings

Before the Open:

• MSC Industrial (MSM): Expected EPS $1.30

After the Close:

• Constellation Brands (STZ): Expected EPS $3.31
• Greenbrier (GBX): Expected EPS $0.98

MSM will provide insight into industrial demand trends, while STZ and GBX will guide consumer and transport sentiment relevant to sector positioning into Q3.

Central Bank Activity

Fed Chair Powell speaks at 13:30 GMT, with markets watching closely for policy signals around inflation trends, labor market slack, and potential timing of rate cuts. Goldman Sachs now expects the first cut in September (previously December), forecasting three 25 bps cuts by year-end and revising its terminal rate view to 3%–3.25% from 3.5%–3.75%. The current Fed funds target remains at 4.25%–4.5%.

Technical Outlook

S&P 500 Index Futures

Currently at 6,245.75, testing resistance at 6,288.75. Support levels are 6,127.00 and 5,959.00, with the 200-day SMA at 5,976.20 and the 50-day SMA at 5,911.0 layered below, reinforcing the broader uptrend on deeper pullbacks.

Nasdaq 100 Index Futures

Trading near 22,845.00, facing resistance at 22,873.25. Supports to monitor are 22,322.50 and 21,566.75, with the 200-day SMA at 21,216.29 and 50-day SMA at 21,271.3 providing lower structural support within the uptrend.

Dow Index Futures

Currently at 44,363, with resistance at 46,326. Supports are at 43,516 and 42,088, while the 200-day SMA at 43,491 and the 50-day SMA at 42,321.2 provide layered technical support on potential retracements.

Outlook

Traders open Q3 with record-high equities and a data-heavy session, watching PMIs, JOLTS, and Powell’s speech for validation of resilience or signs of softening that could shape September Fed cut timing. Technical levels in S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow futures will be critical for intraday breakout or rejection signals, while earnings from MSM, STZ, and GBX may guide sector rotation as the quarter begins.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.