The Day Ahead: Markets Rebound Today on EU Tariff Delay, Durable Goods Drive Direction

Futures Surge as EU Tariffs Delayed; Fed and Data Take the Wheel

U.S. equity futures are sharply higher early Tuesday after President Trump agreed to postpone a proposed 50% tariff on European Union imports. The Dow futures lead, up 430 points (+1.03%), followed by gains of 1.22% in S&P 500 futures and 1.4% in the Nasdaq 100. The delay to July 9, granted after talks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, temporarily de-escalates trade tensions that drove all three major indexes down over 2% last week.

Despite the bounce, investor sentiment remains cautious ahead of key U.S. economic data and a full slate of Federal Reserve speakers.

High-Impact Economic Events – Tuesday, May 27

• 08:00 GMT – Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks
• 12:30 GMT – Durable Goods Orders (April)
  Forecast: -0.8% | Previous: +2.6%
• 13:00 GMT – S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City YoY (March)
  Forecast: +6.6% | Previous: +6.4%
• 14:00 GMT – Consumer Confidence Index (May)
  Forecast: 96.0 | Previous: 97.0
• 00:00 GMT (Wed) – New York Fed President John Williams speaks
• 02:10 GMT (Wed) – Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks

Durable goods will give the first hard-data read on business investment in Q2. Consumer confidence and Fed speakers may shift expectations around growth and rate cuts, especially with futures pricing in easing as soon as September.

Key Earnings to Watch – Tuesday, May 27

Before the Open:

• AutoZone (AZO) – EPS: $37.10 | Prev: $34.12
• Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) – EPS: $1.11 | Prev: $1.24
• Skyline Champion (SKY) – EPS: $0.76 | Prev: $1.00

After the Close:

• Okta (OKTA) – EPS: $0.77 | Prev: $0.15
• Box (BOX) – EPS: $0.26 | Prev: $0.32
• Semtech (SMTC) – EPS: $0.37 | Prev: $0.11
• Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM) – EPS: $0.58 | Prev: $0.94

Eyes will be on Okta and Box for signs of resilience in enterprise software, while AutoZone‘s results serve as a gauge of discretionary consumer spending.

Gold Under Pressure as Dollar Rebounds, Fiscal Risks Simmer

Gold is retreating amid a firmer U.S. dollar, which is rebounding from a one-month low. While short-term consolidation dominates, concerns about rising U.S. deficits and the fiscal outlook could limit downside. The passage of Trump’s tax-cut package, seen adding $3.8 trillion to the national debt over a decade, underpins long-term support for gold amid weakening dollar expectations.

Technical Picture: S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow Bounce Off Key Support

• S&P 500: Found support at 5,756.50 on Friday; reclaiming 5,889.51 (200-day SMA). Next resistance at 5,993.50. A breakout clears the way to 6,236.50.

• Nasdaq 100: Holding 20,775.00 (200-day SMA) support; resistance at 21,562.25 remains pivotal.

• Dow: Bounced off 41,232.50 (50-day SMA) on Friday, but still Needs to clear 43,088 (200-day SMA) for renewed upside momentum.

Today’s Outlook: Data-Driven Direction Amid Trade Relief

The tariff delay fuels a relief rally, but traders will quickly pivot to hard data and Fed signals for confirmation. Durable goods and consumer confidence must meet expectations to sustain upside. Fed commentary late in the session could re-anchor rate path expectations. Any hawkish tilt or data miss could erase early strength. Remain nimble—headline risk remains elevated.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.