The Day Ahead: Walmart Earnings, PPI, Retail Sales and Powell’s Speech Drive Markets Today

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures are pulling back Thursday morning following a three-day winning streak for the S&P 500, driven by optimism over a temporary U.S.-China tariff truce. Futures are under pressure, with S&P 500 down 0.27%, Nasdaq-100 off 0.22%, and Dow Jones futures falling 185 points (-0.44%).

After-hours headlines created further volatility: Foot Locker surged over 60% on M&A speculation involving Dick’s Sporting Goods, while UnitedHealth fell 8% on news of a DOJ probe into its Medicare Advantage business.

Wednesday’s modest gains were led by tech, marking the Nasdaq Composite’s sixth straight positive session.

Strong weekly gains include Nvidia and Tesla (both +16%+), Meta Platforms (+11.3%), and Amazon/Alphabet (+8%+). Investor confidence was reinforced by softer-than-expected April CPI, which showed core prices up just 0.2%, below the 0.3% forecast.

Key Economic Releases

A busy slate of data hits at 12:30 GMT:

• Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI (consensus +0.3% MoM each)
• Retail Sales (expected +0.7% MoM)
• Weekly Jobless Claims (forecast 229K for week ending May 10)

Later data includes Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (13:15 GMT), and NAHB Housing Market Index at 14:00 GMT. April’s CPI has already shifted sentiment positively; today’s readings will further shape views on the Fed’s path.

Notable Earnings

Walmart (WMT) headlines before the open, with Q1 EPS expected at $0.58 (-3.3% YoY) on $164.5B revenue (+2.9% YoY). While expectations are modest, the stock’s 10% YTD return suggests optimism. Analysts flag risks from category mix and cost pressures but expect guidance to remain intact.

Other key pre-market names include Deere (DE) ($5.56 EPS) and Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS) ($1.06 EPS). After the bell, watch Applied Materials (AMAT) ($2.31 EPS) and Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) ($1.10 EPS).

Central Bank Activity

Fed Chair Powell speaks at 12:40 GMT. Traders will scrutinize any shift from the current wait-and-see posture. His prior comments suggested no rush to cut rates, citing solid growth and a stable labor market. With inflation cooling, any hint of timing on rate cuts could move markets.

Technical Outlook

S&P 500 Futures are stalling below 5927, with price hovering near the 200-day SMA (5,876). This level now acts as short-term support. A break lower opens room to 5596, while a push above 5927 targets the 6236 resistance.

Nasdaq-100 Futures remain the leader, holding above the 200-day SMA (20,703) after a strong breakout. Immediate resistance sits near 21,270, with next upside at 22,656. Support is firm at 20,700–20,500.

Dow Futures are fading after rejecting 42,563. Price sits just above the 50-day SMA (41,201), with risk skewed lower toward 40,431 if support breaks.

Outlook

Today’s action hinges on wholesale inflation, retail sales, and Powell’s remarks. The bullish CPI surprise has given risk assets a tailwind, but sentiment remains sensitive to economic surprises and Fed rhetoric. Watch for follow-through in tech, Walmart’s report, and reactions to macro data.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.