XRP News Today: Trade War Fears and ETF Uncertainty Hit Bullish Sentiment

Crypto Markets in Turmoil: US-China Trade Tensions Hit Sentiment

XRP joined the broader crypto market in a sharp reversal, as escalating US-China trade tensions hit risk assets. Early in the session on Tuesday, October 14, the US and China imposed port fees on cargo shipments, reigniting fears of a full-blown trade war.

The news dampened hopes for further de-escalation in tensions following last week’s rare earth export restrictions and threats of an additional 100% US tariff on Chinese shipments. For context, XRP plunged to an October 10 low of $0.7773 following Trump’s tariff threats.

Trump Escalates Trade Tensions

Later in the Tuesday session, US President Trump fueled tensions further, stating:

“I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act. We are considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution. As an example, we can easily produce Cooking Oil ourselves, we don’t need to purchase it from China.”

The Kobeissi Letter commented on the market reaction to Trump’s threat of producing cooking oil at home, stating:

“The stock market just erased $450 billion in 7 minutes because President Trump threatened to start producing cooking oil in the US.”

Fed Powell Speech Overshadowed by Trade War Fears

Rising trade tensions overshadowed Fed Chair Powell’s highly anticipated speech. Powell raised concerns about the labor market softening considerably, bolstering expectations of back-to-back Fed rate cuts in October and December.

Senate Stalemate Delays XRP-Spot ETFs

Meanwhile, the Senate stalemate continued into day 14, with the government shutdown delaying the launch of XRP-spot ETFs.

On Tuesday, October 14, a US Senate vote to advance a stopgap funding bill failed for an eighth time.

The failed vote means that the SEC will continue operating with a skeleton staff, effectively freezing XRP-spot ETF launches. Crucially, a prolonged US government shutdown would delay institutional demand for XRP, potentially capping gains.

Greg Xethalis, General Counsel at Multicoin Capital, provided some clarity on what’s next for crypto-spot ETFs pending approval. He stated:

“Ignore the October 19b-4 deadlines. They are NOT launch deadlines but SRO Rule deadlines and all those rule proposals were cleared by the Generic Listing Standards (for crypto assets that don’t yet qualify for GLS, their 19b4s are still pending).”

What does this mean for XRP traders?

In a nutshell, the seven XRP-spot ETFs could potentially launch after the US government reopens, giving events on Capitol Hill a greater influence on price trends.

Institutional Demand and Regulatory Momentum

Crypto experts expect robust institutional demand amid growing appetite for regulated crypto derivatives.

Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan commented:

“Rapid adoption of XRP and Solana futures shows increased institutional appetite for regulated altcoin derivatives. Bitcoin just had its usual advantage of a head start. Soon the Bitcoin/Ethereum duopoly in spot ETFs will end, hopefully before a bear market starts”

Morgan shared the details of a CME Group Report about XRP futures, adding:

“XRP futures set a new large open interest holders record. 476k contracts equating to $23.7 billion in notional value since May 2025. Not even 6 months. Open interest last month of $1.4 billion.”

Looking beyond spot ETFs, the government shutdown could also slow the Market Structure Bill’s progress. The US House of Representatives passed the bill to the Senate on July 17, triggering a 14.69% XRP rally. Regulatory clarity, including greater CFTC oversight, could drive adoption, tilting the supply-demand balance in XRP’s favor.

As things stand, XRP remains in limbo, with spot ETF launches and crypto-friendly legislation dependent on the Senate passing a stopgap funding bill.

Price Action & Technical Analysis: Will XRP Hold $2.4?

XRP slid 3.92% on Tuesday, October 14, reversing the previous day’s 2.99% gain to close at $2.5053. The token snapped a three-day winning streak and underperformed the broader market, which dropped 2.33%. The pullback left XRP below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reaffirming a bearish bias.

Key technical levels to watch include:

• Support levels: $2.4, $2.0, and $1.9.
• Technical resistance levels: the 200-day EMA at $2.6327 and the 50-day EMA at $2.8329.
• Resistance levels: $2.7 and $3.0.

Catalysts & Scenarios

In the coming sessions, several key drivers could dictate near-term price trends:

• US-China trade developments.
• The US government shutdown.
• XRP ETF headlines (delays or launches) and BlackRock’s position on an iShares XRP Trust.
• Blue-chip companies target XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• Regulatory milestones: Ripple’s application for a US-chartered bank license, the Market Structure Bill, and SWIFT-related news could also drive near-term price trends.

Bearish Scenario: Risks Below $2.4

• BlackRock dismisses plans for an XRP-spot ETF.
• US Senate impasse continues, delaying XRP-spot ETF launches.
• Lawmakers vote against crypto-friendly legislation, including the Market Structure Bill.
• Blue-chip companies dismiss XRP as a treasury reserve asset.
• OCC delays or rejects Ripple’s US-chartered bank license.
• SWIFT keeps its market share in the global remittance market, capping Ripple’s market access.

These bearish scenarios could drag XRP back toward $2.4. A break below $2.4 would expose $2.0.

Bullish Scenario: Path to $3

• US-China trade friction cools.
• Senate passes a stopgap funding bill.
• BlackRock files an S-1 for an iShares XRP Trust, and the SEC approves XRP-spot ETFs.
• Blue-chip companies acquire XRP for treasury purposes, and more payment platforms adopt Ripple technology.
• Ripple secures a US-chartered bank license, and the Senate passes the Market Structure Bill.
• Ripple gains traction in eroding SWIFT’s dominance in the global remittance business.

These bullish scenarios could drive XRP to $2.7 and bring the key psychological resistance at the $3 level.

Political Gridlock and Trade Risks Loom

Republicans need Democrats to cross the aisle to pass a stopgap funding bill. Sixty votes are needed to pass the bill and reopen the government. XRP and the broader crypto market could rally in this scenario. A reopening would likely fuel speculation about the SEC greenlighting crypto-spot ETFs.

Meanwhile, US-China trade developments will also influence sentiment as the APEC Summit looms. Easing trade tensions could boost demand for risk assets, while an escalation would likely weigh on sentiment.

Final Thoughts

All eyes are on the Senate, where a vote could be pivotal in determining whether XRP reclaims $3 or drops back toward $2.

Traders should closely monitor Capitol Hill, US-China trade headlines, and Fed commentary.