XRP Price Forecast: Technical, On-chain Data Signal 15% Drop in October

XRP (XRP) could face fresh selling pressure this week as traders brace for critical SEC rulings on multiple spot XRP ETF applications.

The token’s latest price action suggests that a bearish continuation may be underway, hinting at a potential 15% drop ahead of the mid-October decision window.

Bear Flag Points to Breakdown Toward $2.13

XRP’s four-hour chart paints a cautious picture. The token has been consolidating within an upward-sloping bear flag pattern, a classic continuation setup that often forms after sharp declines.

The structure emerges as prices rebound modestly before resuming their prior downtrend, and a confirmed breakdown below the flag’s lower boundary could push XRP toward $2.13, about 15% lower than current levels.

Adding weight to the bearish setup, XRP continues to trade below its 20-, 50-, and 200-period exponential moving averages (EMAs). These moving averages now act as dynamic resistance zones, keeping buyers on the defensive.

ETF Decision Window Adds to Volatility

From a macro perspective, the upcoming SEC ETF decision window (Oct. 18–25) could act as a major volatility trigger.

Major applicants like Grayscale, 21Shares, and Bitwise are all awaiting final responses under Rule 19b-4, which mandates the SEC to approve, deny, or delay their proposals.

Analysts such as Eric Balchunas (who says the decisions are ‘on ice’ amid the US government shutdown), Ali Martinez, and Kronos Research’s Vincent Liu warn that procedural delays or lack of clarity could spark a sell-the-news style move given XRP’s fragile technical footing.

Until a decisive regulatory update or breakout invalidates the bear flag, XRP’s short-term outlook remains biased to the downside, with $2.13 emerging as the key level to watch for potential capitulation or rebound.

XRP On-Chain Data Hints at $2.14 Support Zone

XRP’s Token Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) chart from Glassnode reinforces the technical bearish bias while revealing strong onchain support around $2.14.

The metric shows where most tokens last moved onchain, essentially mapping investor cost bases and potential accumulation or resistance zones.

Over the past six months, the largest concentration of XRP holdings below the current spot price sits near $2.14, totaling about 1.48 billion XRP, while the heaviest cluster above appears around $2.82 with roughly 1.82 billion XRP.

This distribution suggests that a breakdown from current levels could see XRP gravitate toward the $2.14 “value area,” where buying interest historically increases.

Conversely, $2.82 remains the key resistance to reclaim for any sustained bullish reversal in the weeks ahead.