The Day Ahead: What Markets Face Today as Powell, PMI Data, and Trade Risks Take Focus

Markets Stumble as Trade War Risks Reignite

U.S. equity futures are under pressure early Monday as U.S.-China trade tensions flare. S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, and Dow Jones futures are all in the red—down 0.53%, 0.68%, and 0.41%, respectively—after China pushed back against U.S. accusations of trade violations, signaling a deeper rift ahead of potential high-level talks.

Despite a powerful May—S&P +6.15%, Nasdaq +9.56%, Dow +3.94%—market momentum is at risk. Traders are wary that the rally priced in best-case tariff outcomes. Morgan Stanley’s Chris Toomey warns the market could stay range-bound as rising levies and global policy uncertainty cap upside.

What to Watch: Monday’s High-Impact Economic Data

• 13:45 GMT – S&P Global Final Manufacturing PMI (May): expected 51.4, previous 51.3
• 14:00 GMT – ISM Manufacturing PMI (May): expected 49.8, previous 49.2
• 14:00 GMT – Construction Spending MoM (April): expected +0.2%, previous +0.2%

Today’s ISM report is especially important. A reading below 50 signals contraction in the manufacturing sector, which is already facing cost pressure from tariffs. A weaker-than-expected print could push Fed cut expectations forward.

Fed Watch: Powell Headlines a Busy Speaker Lineup

Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at 17:00 GMT. His remarks come amid elevated inflation uncertainty and cooling consumer activity. While April’s PCE came in at 2.1%, businesses may pass rising import costs to consumers, muddying the inflation path.

Other Fed appearances today:
• 14:15 GMT – Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan
• 16:45 GMT – Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

The market is pricing in a potential rate cut by September, but officials have remained cautious. Any shift in tone could be a catalyst.

Earnings in Focus: Names to Watch Pre- and Post-Market

Before the bell:
• Campbell Soup (CPB) – EPS est. $0.65. Focus: cost inflation, pricing power
• Science Applications (SAIC) – EPS est. $2.13. Focus: federal spending outlook

After the bell:
• Credo Technology (CRDO) – EPS est. $0.27. Focus: China exposure, forward guidance

Technical Check: Indexes Stall Near Critical Levels

S&P 500 futures: hovering under 5,895 (200-day SMA). Resistance: 6,008.00. Support: 5,756.50.

Nasdaq-100 futures: range-bound between 21,858.75 (resistance) and 20,727.00 (support). In position to challenge the 200-day moving average at 20,810.65.

Dow futures: capped under the 200-day moving average at 43,113. Key support: the 50-day moving average at 41,238.

Commodities Snapshot: Crude Rebounds, Gold Gains on Trade Anxiety

Oil prices are firmer after OPEC+ stuck to a modest 411,000 bpd output increase for July, matching recent months.  The market had feared a surprise hike, which helped limit downside.

Low U.S. fuel inventories and stronger gasoline demand—up nearly 1 million bpd last week—are also supporting prices ahead of hurricane season.

Gold rose as investors sought safe-haven exposure amid trade friction and rising geopolitical risk. The move comes as the dollar edged lower and tariff concerns mount following Trump’s push to double steel and aluminum duties.

Trading Outlook: Headline-Driven Risk Day

With Fed officials on deck, critical economic data at the open, and U.S.-China rhetoric deteriorating, risk assets face headline sensitivity. Traders should prepare for volatility spikes around PMI prints and Powell’s speech. The Fed remains in “wait-and-see” mode, but tariff effects are increasingly front and center. A weak ISM or dovish shift could trigger repricing of September cut odds.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.