The Week Ahead: Investors Eye This Week’s Fed Minutes and Tariff Deadline

Market Overview

U.S. equity indexes extended gains last week, with the S&P 500 rising 1.7% to 6,279, Nasdaq up 1.6% to 20,601, and the Dow climbing 2.3% to 44,829, all sitting near record highs. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain up over 6% year-to-date as markets closed the first half at all-time highs, shrugging off policy volatility.

The central theme this week is tariff policy uncertainty ahead of the July 9 expiration of the 90-day tariff pause. While easing trade tensions have supported a sharp Q2 rebound, markets are watching closely for signs of cost pressures resurfacing. Last week’s stronger-than-expected jobs report also reduced near-term Fed rate-cut expectations, adding a layer of caution around policy direction.

Labor market resilience continues to support sentiment, with June nonfarm payrolls increasing by 147,000 against expectations of 117,000 and the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.1%.

The Fed’s upcoming commentary will be closely followed for signals on the timing of potential easing amid sticky inflation concerns and deficit-driven yield pressures.

Key Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday (7/7)
• No notable earnings.
• BRICS Summit (Day 2).

Tuesday (7/8)
• No before-open earnings.
• 06:00 GMT – NFIB Small Business Index (98.9 forecast, 98.8 prior).
• 15:00 GMT – Consumer Credit m/m ($10.6B forecast, $17.9B prior).
• 20:30 GMT – API Weekly Statistical Bulletin.
• Earnings after the close: Penguin Solutions (PENG) – est. EPS $0.32.

Wednesday (7/9)
• No before-open earnings.
• 10:00 GMT – Final Wholesale Inventories m/m (-0.3% forecast, -0.3% prior).
• 14:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories (prior 3.8M).
• 17:01 GMT – 10-year Bond Auction (4.42% prior).
• 18:00 GMT – FOMC Meeting Minutes. Traders will watch for guidance on rate-cut timing and tariff-related inflation.
• Earnings after the close: AZZ Inc (AZZ) – est. EPS $1.58.

Thursday (7/10)
• Earnings before the open:
– Delta Air Lines (DAL): est. EPS $2.02 on $15.4B revenue, focus on margins and guidance under tariff caution.
– Conagra (CAG): est. EPS $0.59.
– Helen of Troy (HELE): est. EPS $0.90.
– Simply Good Foods (SMPL): est. EPS $0.50.
• 12:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims (prior 233K).
• 13:00 GMT – FOMC Member Musalem Speaks.
• 14:30 GMT – Natural Gas Storage (prior 55B).
• 17:01 GMT – 30-year Bond Auction (prior 4.84%).
• 17:15 GMT – FOMC Member Waller Speaks.
• 19:30 GMT – FOMC Member Daly Speaks.
• Earnings after the close:
– Levi Strauss (LEVI): est. EPS $0.13.
– PriceSmart (PSMT): est. EPS $1.12.
– WD-40 (WDFC): est. EPS $1.44.

Friday (7/11)
• No before-open earnings.
• 18:00 GMT – Federal Budget Balance (prior -$316B).
• No after-close earnings.

Central Bank Activity

Wednesday’s FOMC minutes (18:00 GMT) and multiple Fed speakers Thursday will guide rate expectations, with traders assessing if September becomes the earliest “live” cut window amid sticky inflation and a strong labor market.

Technical Outlook

Dow Jones (weekly): Closed at 44,829 (+2.3%), just below resistance at 45,073.63 with 52-week SMA support at 42,250.54.

Nasdaq (weekly): Closed at 20,601.10 (+1.6%), after posting a record high at 20,624.51, with 52-week SMA at 18,516.39.

S&P 500 (weekly): Closed at 6,279.35 (+1.7%), clearing prior high of 6,147, while reaching a record at 6,284.65, with 52-week SMA support at 5,784.57.

The weekly structure remains bullish, with price holding above key moving averages and resistance tests in progress, supporting continued momentum if macro catalysts remain supportive.

Outlook

This week, markets will be driven by the July 9 FOMC minutes and tariff policy decisions as traders gauge the potential timing of Fed rate cuts against a backdrop of labor market strength. Earnings season picks up with Delta and consumer names providing insight into spending trends under tariff-related uncertainties.

Resilient jobs data and easing trade tensions have helped sustain upward momentum, but the upcoming tariff deadline and Fed commentary will determine whether markets can build on record highs in the near term. Traders will remain focused on policy signals, labor data resilience, and corporate earnings as key risk drivers for direction this week.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.