The Week Ahead: US Markets Brace for PCE Forecast, Netflix Results, and Corporate Earnings

Market Overview

U.S. equities ended slightly lower last week as investors weighed resilient economic data against a noisy political backdrop. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.29% to close at 49,359.34, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.66% to 23,515.39, and the S&P 500 declined 0.38% to 6,940.01. Despite the modest pullback, all three major indices remain comfortably above their 52-week moving averages, underscoring the persistence of an intact uptrend.

Markets continue to show remarkable composure in the face of geopolitical tensions, renewed scrutiny of the Federal Reserve, and new policy proposals aimed at affordability and housing. Investor focus remains firmly on fundamentals—steady growth, easing inflation, and robust corporate earnings.

Economic momentum remains strong, supported by resilient consumer spending and an improving labor market. Corporate earnings are broadening beyond megacaps, with all 11 S&P sectors projected to contribute to 2026 EPS growth.

The rotation toward cyclicals, small and midcaps, and international equities remains in focus as the market adjusts to the prospect of gradual Fed easing later this year.

Key Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Jan 19
Before the Open:
• No reports scheduled
Economic Releases:
• No releases scheduled (Martin Luther King Jr. Day – markets closed)

Tuesday, Jan 20
Before the Open:
• 3M (MMM), est. $1.80
• D.R. Horton (DHI), est. $1.93
• Fastenal (FAST), est. $0.26
• Fifth Third (FITB), est. $1.00
• Forestar (FOR), est. $0.32
• KeyCorp (KEY), est. $0.39
• U.S. Bancorp (USB), est. $1.19
Economic Releases:
• No releases scheduled
After the Close:
• Netflix (NFLX), est. $0.55
• Bank OZK (OZK), est. $1.55
• Hancock Whitney (HWC), est. $1.49
• Interactive Brokers (IBKR), est. $0.59
• Progress Software (PRGS), est. $1.31
• United Airlines (UAL), est. $2.93

Wednesday, Jan 21
Before the Open:
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), est. $2.49
• Halliburton (HAL), est. $0.55
• Charles Schwab (SCHW), est. $1.39
• Travelers (TRV), est. $8.72
Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – President Trump speaks at World Economic Forum
• 15:00 GMT – Pending Home Sales, forecast -2.6% (prior +3.3%)
• 15:00 GMT – Construction Spending, forecast +0.1% (prior +0.2%)
After the Close:
• Kinder Morgan (KMI), est. $0.37
• Knight-Swift (KNX), est. $0.36
• CACI International (CACI), est. $6.48

Thursday, Jan 22
Before the Open:
• GE Aerospace (GE), est. $1.44
• Abbott Labs (ABT), est. $1.50
• Procter & Gamble (PG), est. $1.87
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), est. $0.29
Economic Releases:
• 13:30 GMT – Core PCE Price Index, forecast +0.2% m/m
• 13:30 GMT – GDP (Final Q3), forecast +4.3% q/q
• 13:30 GMT – Weekly Jobless Claims, forecast 203K (prior 198K)
• 15:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories, prior +3.4M
After the Close:
• Intel (INTC), est. $0.08
• Alcoa (AA), est. $0.93
• Capital One (COF), est. $4.13
• Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), est. $2.25

Friday, Jan 23
Before the Open:
• SLB (SLB), est. $0.74
• Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), est. $1.29
Economic Releases:
• 14:45 GMT – S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI, forecast 52.1 (prior 51.8)
• 14:45 GMT – S&P Global Flash Services PMI, forecast 52.8 (prior 52.5)
• 15:00 GMT – Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final), forecast 54.0 (prior 54.0)

Central Bank Activity

No scheduled FOMC speeches or publications this week. Markets remain attentive to developments around Chair Powell’s investigation and speculation over his successor. Any remarks related to Fed independence or future policy direction could prompt volatility in rates and equity markets.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 49,359.34 (-0.29%), support at 45,728.93, 45,452.03 then 44,591.15 (52-Week MA), resistance at 49,633.35.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 23,515.39 (-0.66%), support at 21,898.29, 20,905.99, then 20,677.43 (52-Week MA), resistance at 24,019.99.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 6,940.01 (-0.38%), support at 6,521.92, 6,360.58 then 6,261.53 (52-Week MA), resistance at 6,986.33.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact uptrend.

Outlook

The focus this week will center on the PCE inflation report and a busy round of corporate earnings. A steady PCE reading near 2.7% would reinforce expectations for gradual rate cuts later this spring.

Earnings from GE, Intel, and Netflix will be closely watched as barometers of industrial demand, semiconductor momentum, and digital media strength. Netflix’s results, in particular, could influence sentiment in large-cap technology given its role as a leading growth proxy within the communication services sector.

While political developments continue to dominate headlines, markets remain driven by fundamentals—steady growth, easing inflation, and broad-based profit gains—keeping the near-term tone constructive through late January.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.