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U.S. Dollar Dives As Non Farm Payrolls Miss Estimates: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By:
Vladimir Zernov
Published: Aug 1, 2025, 16:51 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD rallied towards the 1.1550 level as traders focused on the weak Non Farm Payrolls report.
  • USD/CAD pulled back towards 1.3800 as demand for commodity-related currencies increased.
  • USD/JPY suffered a sell-off amid strong pullback in Treasury yields.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts

U.S. Dollar Retreats As Traders React To The Weak Jobs Report

DXY
DXY 010825 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index is under strong pressure as traders react to Non Farm Payrolls report. The report indicated that U.S. economy added 73,000 jobs in July, compared to analyst forecast of 110,000. The previous report was revised from 147,000 to 14,000, which was a shock for markets.

In case U.S. Dollar index settles below the 99.00 level, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the 98.00 – 98.20 range.

EUR/USD Tests Resistance At 1.1575 – 1.1600

EUR/USD
EUR/USD 010825 4h Chart

EUR/USD rallied as traders focused on U.S. job market data. In the EU, traders had a chance to take a look at inflation data for July. Euro Area Inflation Rate remained unchanged at 2%, compared to analyst forecast of 1.9%.

Currently, EUR/USD is trying to settle above the resistance at 1.1575 – 1.1590. In case this attempt is successful, EUR/USD will move towards the next resistance level at 1.1685 – 1.1700.

GBP/USD Rebounds, Supported By U.S. Job Market Data

GBP/USD
GBP/USD 010825 4h Chart

GBP/USD rebounded from multi-week lows, supported by the weak Non Farm Payrolls report.

In case GBP/USD manages to settle above the resistance at 1.3250 – 1.3270, it will head towards the next resistance level at 1.3370 – 1.3390.

USD/CAD Pulls Back From Multi-Week Highs

USD/CAD
USD/CAD 010825 4h Chart

USD/CAD pulled back as traders reacted to the rally in gold markets and focused on U.S. economic reports.

If USD/CAD stays below the 1.3800 level, it will head towards the support level at 1.3735 – 1.3750.

USD/JPY Dives As Treasury Yields Fall

USD/JPY
USD/JPY 010825 4h Chart

USD/JPY is down by almost 2% as traders focus on the strong pullback in Treasury yields. Bond traders bet on dovish Fed after weak job market data, which is bearish for USD/JPY.

A successful test of the support at 147.50 – 148.00 will open the way to the test of the next support level at 143.00 – 143.50.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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