James Hyerczyk
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U.S. Dollar Bill

The U.S. Dollar is trading flat against a basket of major currencies in a listless trade as investors stayed on the sidelines and waited for the outcome of a two-day Federal Reserve meeting.

All eyes will be on a statement from the Federal Open Market Policy Committee, due at 18:00 GMT, with a news conference by Chairman Jerome Powell expected half an hour later.

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At 17:42 GMT, September U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading 92.475, up 0.039 or +0.04%.

According to Reuters, investors are waiting to hear about the Fed’s assessment of economic growth, inflation risks, and the impact on monetary policy, especially regarding when the Fed will start tightening policy by reducing its purchases of government bonds.

Some traders don’t expect the Fed to change its accommodative course in a major way at this meeting, but most agree that any sign that the Fed will act sooner than expected on tapering its bond purchase stimulus or raising interest rates could rattle investors. Some investors said concerns that the fast-spreading Delta coronavirus variant may scupper economic growth is another reason for the Fed to stand pat, for now.

Daily September U.S. Dollar Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, but momentum has shifted to the downside. A trade through 92.075 and 91.995 will change the main trend to down. A move through 93.195 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down. This is controlling the momentum. The minor trend will change to up on a trade through 93.04.

The minor range is 93.195 to 92.320. Its 50% level or pivot at 92.760 is resistance.

On the downside, the first support area is a pair of retracement levels at 92.495 and 92.350. Additional support is another pair of retracement levels at 91.950 to 91.850.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the September U.S. Dollar Index into the close on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 92.495 and 92.350.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 92.495 will indicate the presence of buyer. This could trigger a quick move into the pivot at 92.760. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next potential targets a pair of main tops at 93.195 and 93.430.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 92.350 will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for a potential plunge into a cluster of levels at 92.075, 91.995, 91.950 and 91.850.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
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