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James Hyerczyk
U.S. Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar is edging higher against a basket of major currencies on Thursday shortly after the European Central Bank’s interest rate and policy decisions, and before President Trump’s important meeting with his advisors over whether to slap more tariffs on China on December 15. Traders are also awaiting the outcome of the U.K. elections that will decide the destiny of Brexit.

At 13:26 GMT, December U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading 97.145, up 0.089 or +0.09%.

On Wednesday the U.S. Dollar Index plunged after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged as expected, but signaled it would not raise interest rates either in 2020.

Daily December U.S. Dollar Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The next two downside targets come in at 96.960 and 96.885. Taking out these levels will reaffirm the downtrend.

The main trend will change to up on a trade through 98.495. This is highly unlikely. However, the index is down nine sessions from its last main top, which puts it inside the window of time for a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

The market is currently testing a major retracement zone at 97.140 to 96.630. Trader reaction to this zone will determine the longer-term trend of the dollar index.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 97.145, the direction of the December U.S. Dollar Index the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major 50% level at 97.140.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 97.140 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out yesterday’s low at 97.015 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could trigger a further break into the pair of bottoms at 96.960 and 96.885. If they fail as support then look for the selling to extend into the major Fibonacci level at 96.630.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 97.140 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the steep downtrending Gann angle at 97.370.

The angle at 97.370 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

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