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U.S. Dollar Rebounds As ISM Manufacturing PMI Beats Estimates: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By:
Vladimir Zernov
Published: Oct 1, 2025, 16:52 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD pulled back as traders focused on Euro Area inflation data.
  • GBP/USD made an attempt to settle above the 1.3500 level.
  • USD/JPY moved lower as Treasury yields pulled back.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts

U.S. Dollar Rebounds From Session Lows

DXY 011025 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders react to the better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI report. The report indicated that ISM Manufacturing PMI increased from 48.7 in August to 49.1 in September, compared to analyst forecast of 49. Numbers below 50 show contraction.

The nearest resistance level for U.S. Dollar Index is located in the 98.00 – 98.20 range. A move above the 98.20 level will push U.S. Dollar Index towards the next resistance at 98.85 – 99.00.

EUR/USD Retreats As Euro Area Inflation Rate Meets Estimates

EUR/USD 011025 4h Chart

EUR/USD pulled back as traders focused on Euro Area inflation reports. Inflation Rate increased from 2% in August to 2.2% in September, while Core Inflation Rate remained unchanged at 2.3%. Both reports met analyst estimates.

If EUR/USD settles below the 1.1720 level, it will get to the test of the nearest support level at 1.1685 – 1.1700.

GBP/USD Tests The 1.3500 Level

GBP/USD 011025 4h Chart

GBP/USD made an attempt to settle above the resistance at 1.3485 – 1.3500 but lost momentum and pulled back.

In case GBP/USD climbs above the 1.3500 level, it will head towards the next resistance level at 1.3585 – 1.3600.

USD/CAD Gains Ground As Canada’s Manufacturing PMI Misses Expectations

USD/CAD 011025 4h Chart

USD/CAD gains ground as traders react to the disappointing Manufacturing PMI report from Canada. The report showed that Manufacturing PMI declined from 48.3 in August to 47.7 in September, compared to analyst consensus of 48.

A move above the 1.3950 level will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at 1.4000 – 1.4015.

USD/JPY Moves Lower Amid Falling Treasury Yields

USD/JPY 011025 4h Chart

USD/JPY tested new lows amid pullback in Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries settled near the 3.55% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries pulled back below 4.15%.

In case USD/JPY declines below the 146.00 level, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the 143.00 – 143.50 range.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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