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U.S. Dollar Retreats As Inflation Rate Misses Estimates: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By:
Vladimir Zernov
Published: Aug 12, 2025, 16:57 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD made an attempt to settle above the 1.1700 level as traders focused on U.S. inflation data.
  • GBP/USD climbed above the 1.3500 level as traders reacted to UK Unemployment Rate report.
  • USD/JPY pulled back below the 148.00 level.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts

U.S. Dollar Is Losing Ground As Traders React To CPI Report

DXY
DXY 120825 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index retreats as traders focus on inflation data. Inflation Rate remained unchanged at 2.7% in July, compared to analyst forecast of 2.8%. Core Inflation Rate increased from 2.9% to 3.1%, compared to analyst consensus of 3.0%.

Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle below the support at 98.00 – 98.20. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will head towards the next support, which is located in the 97.10 – 97.30 range.

EUR/USD Tests The 1.1700 Level

EUR/USD
EUR/USD 120825 4h Chart

EUR/USD rallied as traders focused on inflation reports from the U.S. In the EU, traders had a chance to take a look at Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index report for August. The report indicated that Economic Sentiment decreased from 36.1 to 25.1, compared to analyst forecast of 28.1.

If EUR/USD settles above the resistance at 1.1685 – 1.1700, it will move towards the next resistance level at 1.1800 – 1.1815.

GBP/USD Tests New Highs

GBP/USD
GBP/USD 120825 4h Chart

GBP/USD is moving higher as traders react to UK Unemployment Rate report. The report showed that UK Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.7% in June, in line with analyst consensus.

A successful test of the resistance at 1.3485 – 1.3500 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at 1.3570 – 1.3585.

USD/CAD Retreats As Demand For U.S. Dollar Declines

USD/CAD
USD/CAD 120825 4h Chart

USD/CAD is losing ground amid rising demand for commodity-related currencies.

A move below the support at 1.3735 – 1.3750 will open the way to the test of the next support level at 1.3585 – 1.3600.

USD/JPY Moved Back Below The 148.00 Level

USD/JPY
USD/JPY 120825 4h Chart

USD/JPY pulled back as traders focused on general weakness of the American currency.

The technical picture remains unchanged as USD/JPY is stuck near the 148.00 level.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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