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U.S. Dollar Retreats As Traders Focus On Additional Tariffs On India: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By:
Vladimir Zernov
Published: Aug 6, 2025, 16:51 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD settled above the 1.1600 level despite the disappointing Euro Area Retail Sales report.
  • GBP/USD climbed towards the 1.3350 level as rebound continued.
  • USD/CAD pulled back towards 1.3750 as demand for commodity-related currencies increased.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts

U.S. Dollar Is Under Pressure

DXY
DXY 060825 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index is losing ground as traders react to Trump’s decision to impose an additional 25% tariff on India over its purchases of Russian oil. Last week, the U.S. announced an 25% tariff on Indian goods, so the total tariff will rise to 50%.

The nearest support level for U.S. Dollar Index is located in the 98.00 – 98.20 range. A move below the 98.00 level will push U.S. Dollar Index towards the next support at 97.10 – 97.30.

EUR/USD Gains Ground As Traders Focus On Weak Dollar

EUR/USD
EUR/USD 060825 4h Chart

EUR/USD tests new highs despite the disappointing Euro Area Retail Sales report. The report showed that Retail Sales increased by +0.3% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst forecast of +0.4%.

In case EUR/USD climbs above the 1.1650 level, it will move towards the next resistance level at 1.1685 – 1.1700.

GBP/USD Attempts To Settle Above The Resistance At 1.3370 – 1.3390

GBP/USD
GBP/USD 060825 4h Chart

GBP/USD has also moved higher as traders reacted to UK Construction PMI report. The report showed that Construction PMI declined from 48.8 in June to 44.3 in July, compared to analyst forecast of 49.2. Numbers below 50 show contraction.

A successful test of the resistance at 1.3370 – 1.3390 will push GBP/USD towards the next resistance level at 1.3485 – 1.3500.

USD/CAD Tests Support At 1.3735 – 1.3750

USD/CAD
USD/CAD 060825 4h Chart

USD/CAD is trying to settle below the support at 1.3735 – 1.3750 amid rising demand for commodity-related currencies.

A move below the 1.3735 level will push USD/CAD towards the next support, which is located in the 1.3585 – 1,3600 range.

USD/JPY Remains Stuck Below the 148.00 Level

USD/JPY
USD/JPY 060825 4h Chart

USD/JPY made an attempt to settle above the resistance at 147.50 – 148.00 but lost momentum and pulled back.

In case USD/JPY declines below the 147.00 level, it will head towards 146.00. A move below the 146.00 level will push USD/JPY towards the support at 143.00 – 143.50.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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