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U.S. Dollar Tests New Highs As Retail Sales Exceed Expectations: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By:
Vladimir Zernov
Published: Jul 17, 2025, 17:02 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD tested new lows as traders reacted to U.S. economic reports.
  • GBP/USD pulled back as UK Unemployment Rate exceeded analyst estimates.
  • USD/CAD moved higher amid falling demand for commodity-related currencies.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts

U.S. Dollar Index Is Heading Towards 99.00

DXY
DXY 170725 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders react to the better-than-expected Retail Sales report. The report indicated that Retail Sales increased by +0.6% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst forecast of +0.1%.

In case U.S. Dollar Index moves above the 99.00 level, it will head towards the nearest resistance level at 99.20 – 99.40.

EUR/USD Tests New Lows

EUR/USD
EUR/USD 170725 4h Chart

EUR/USD is trying to settle below the support level at 1.1575 – 1.1590 as traders focus on U.S. economic reports.

A move below the 1.1575 level will open the way to the test of the next support level, which is located in the 1.1450 – 1.1465 range.

GBP/USD Retreats As UK Unemployment Rate Rises To 4.7%

GBP/USD
GBP/USD 170725 4h Chart

GBP/USD remains stuck near the support level at 1.3370 – 1.3390 as traders react to Unemployment Rate report from the UK. The report indicated that Unemployment Rate increased from 4.6% in April to 4.7% in May, compared to analyst forecast of 4.6%.

If GBP/USD manages to settle below 1.3370, it will head towards the support level at 1.3250 – 1.3270. RSI is in the moderate territory, and there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

USD/CAD Tests Resistance At 1.3735- 1.3750

USD/CAD
USD/CAD 170725 4h Chart

USD/CAD attempts to settle above the resistance at 1.3735 – 1.3750 as demand for commodity-related currencies declines.

In case this attempt is successful, USD/CAD will head towards the next resistance level at 1.3845 – 1.3860.

USD/JPY Gains Ground As Traders Bet On Hawkish Fed

USD/JPY
USD/JPY 170725 4h Chart

USD/JPY is moving higher as traders bet that Fed would be more hawkish than previously expected. The encouraging U.S. economic data provides support to the American currency.

If USD/JPY climbs above the 149.00 level, it will head towards the resistance level at 151.00 – 151.50.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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