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U.S. Dollar Tests New Lows As Traders Focus On Fed Meeting: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By:
Vladimir Zernov
Published: Sep 16, 2025, 16:44 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD climbed above the 1.1850 level as traders focused on Fed and reacted to the U.S. Retail Sales report.
  • GBP/USD moved towards the resistance level at 1.1870 - 1.1885.
  • USD/JPY pulled back as Treasury yields moved lower.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts

U.S. Dollar Remains Under Pressure

DXY 160925 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index is losing ground despite the better-than-expected Retail Sales report. The report indicated that Retail Sales increased by +0.6% month-over-month in August, compared to analyst forecast of +0.2%. Traders ignored the encouraging report and focused on the Fed decision, which would be released tomorrow.

From the technical point of view, U.S. Dollar Index settled below the support at 97.10 – 97.30 and is moving towards the next support at 96.40 – 96.50.

EUR/USD Rallies As Traders Prepare For Fed Decision

EUR/USD 160925 4h Chart

EUR/USD tests new highs as traders focus on the Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index report. The report showed that Economic Sentiment increased from 25.1 in August to 26.1 in September, compared to analyst forecast of 20.3.

A successful test of the resistance at 1.1870 – 1.1885 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at 1.1960 – 1.1975.

GBP/USD Attempts To Settle Above 1.3650

GBP/USD 160925 4h Chart

GBP/USD  gains ground as traders prepare for Fed decision. In the UK, traders focused on the Unemployment Rate report, which showed that Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.7% in July.

In case GBP/USD settles above the resistance at 1.3665 – 1.3680, it will head towards the next resistance level at 1.3775 – 1.3790.

USD/CAD Pulls Back As Canada’s Inflation Rate Misses Estimates

USD/CAD 160925 4h Chart

USD/CAD is losing ground as traders focus on inflation data from Canada. Inflation Rate increased from 1.7% in July to 1.9% in August, compared to analyst forecast of 2%.

A move below the support at 1.3735 – 1.3750 will push USD/CAD towards the next support level at 1.3635 – 1.3650.

USD/JPY Retreats Amid Falling Treasury Yields

USD/JPY 160925 4h Chart

USD/JPY is under pressure as Treasury yields fall ahead of Fed Interest Rate Decision.

If USD/JPY settles below the 146.00 level, it will head towards the nearest support level, which is located in the 143.00 – 143.50 range.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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