Gold follows through to the upside with enthusiasm following Monday’s pennant breakout. Strong upward momentum pushes gold through a potential resistance zone from 2,024 to 2,030 with little hesitation and it continues to trade strong, near the highs of the day at the time of this writing. If it can maintain strength through this week, gold is on track to have its highest monthly and highest weekly closing prices ever.
Gold Pointing to New Record Highs
Previously, the highest monthly close in gold was 1,989 from April 2023. In May the following month gold advanced to a new record high of 2,082 before encountering resistance that led to the most recent 13% correction. That high briefly exceeded the prior record high of 2,070 from March 2022. It is next in line to be tested as resistance during the current run.
Initial New High Targets
There are a couple simple techniques that can be used to help identify some initial new high target levels for gold. The first method provides targets at 2,131, 2,185 and 2,254. They are derived from a rising ABCD pattern where we calculate the relationship between the CD leg of the advance relative to the first leg up from A to B. The standard target is when there is an approximate 100% match between the swings, CD equals AB. However, we can extend the targets by Fibonacci ratios to identify higher targets. By expanding the CD leg target by the 127.2% Fibonacci ratio a target of 2,185 is indicated, while a 161.8% extension provides a target of 2,250.
Confluence at 2,250 to 2,254
Next, we look at a simple extended retracement of the most recent downswing. Gold surpassed the 78.6% retracement at 2,024 today and kept rising. A 100% retracement completes at the 2,082-record trend high, while a 127.2% extension of the retracement comes in at 2,185. Further, the 161.8% extension completes at 2,254. There is particular interest where each method identifies a similar price area. That occurs around 2,250 to 2,254 and makes this target zone potentially more significant than the lower target just mentioned.
Bruce boasts over 20 years in financial markets, holding senior roles such as Head of Trading Strategy at Relentless 13 Capital and Corporate Advisor at Chronos Futures. A CMT® charter holder and MBA in Finance, he's a renowned analyst and media figure, appearing on 150+ TV business shows.