US Dollar Forecast: DXY Breaks Below 200-Day MA on Weak Jobs Data

Dollar Slips Below 200-Day MA as Labor Data Fuels December Cut Bets

The greenback is losing ground early Tuesday, slicing through the 200-day moving average at 99.816 and putting sellers firmly in control. The move has a bearish feel to it — not the kind of dip buyers rush to defend.

Next up on the downside is the 50% retracement level at 99.693, but there’s not much support beneath that. If sellers keep pressing, the swing bottom at 98.991 and the 50-day MA near 98.878 come into play. A reclaim of the 200-day would suggest this is more about long liquidation than fresh shorts piling in — but even then, it’s going to take a breakout above 100.395 to get aggressive buyers off the sidelines.

At 15:42 GMT, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 99.758, down 0.427 or -0.43%.

Treasuries Rally as Jobs Picture Softens

The 10-year yield dipped below 4.01%, down a couple of basis points, while the long bond fell 3 bps to 4.647%. The 2-year barely moved. The message from the curve: traders are buying into the soft-landing story — or at least pricing like they are.

ADP’s private payroll data showed companies shed an average of 13,500 jobs a week over the past month, a sharp pickup from the 2,500 in the prior reading. Consumer confidence took a hit too — the Conference Board’s November print came in at 88.7, the weakest since April and well below the 93.2 consensus.

Inflation Fading From the Picture

September’s PPI release is stale, but it still matters. Core came in at 0.1%, cooler than the 0.2% expected — more fodder for the doves. As Bellwether Wealth’s Clark Bellin put it, the read helps justify another cut in December since inflation looks contained and the labor market is clearly cooling.

Fed Speakers Split, But Markets Lean Dovish

Fed futures are pricing an 80% chance of a quarter-point cut at the December 10 meeting, which would bring the target range to 3.50–3.75%. Williams, Daly, and Waller have all signaled they’re comfortable easing further. Collins is the outlier — she’s leaning against a move, calling the current stance “mildly restrictive” and “appropriate.”

Bottom Line

The dollar’s on its back foot, and the data isn’t giving bulls much to work with. Soft jobs numbers, weak confidence, and tame inflation are all pointing toward another rate cut. Until something shifts the narrative — or buyers reclaim 100.395 — the path of least resistance is lower.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.