US Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – April 28, 2017 Forecast

June U.S. Dollar Index futures are under pressure on Friday following the release of stronger-than-expected Euro Zone inflation data. Official flash estimates put Euro Zone inflation at 1.9 percent in the first quarter. It’s was still below the 2 percent target, but better than the 1.8 percent estimate.

In other news, the U.S. economy grew at its weakest pace in three years in the first quarter. According to the Commerce Department, gross domestic product increased at a 0.7 percent annual rate.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 98.565 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 99.21 will turn the minor trend to up.

The index continues to straddle the major Fibonacci level at 98.80. Trader reaction to this level will likely determine the longer-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is 98.565 to 99.21. Its 50% level or pivot is 98.89. This price is controlling the intraday direction of the index today.

Forecast

Based on the current price at 98.755, the direction of the dollar index today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fib level at 98.80.

A sustained move under 98.80 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a move into the main bottom at 98.565. The daily chart opens up to the downside under this bottom with the next target angle coming in at 98.02. Crossing to the weak side of this angle will put the index in an extremely bearish position.

A sustained move over 98.80 will indicate the presence of buyers. The next target is the short-term pivot at 98.89. Overtaking this level could trigger an acceleration to the upside with 99.21 and 99.24 the next two targets.

Overtaking 99.24 could trigger an acceleration into the next downtrending angle at 99.64.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 98.80 all session, trader reaction to this level will tell us if the bulls or the bears are in control.