US Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – February 14, 2018 Forecast

March U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading unchanged shortly before the release of the U.S. consumer inflation and retail sales reports.

Monthly CPI is expected to come in at 0.3%, up from 0.1%. Monthly Core CPI is expected to post a 0.2% gain, down from 0.3%.

Monthly retail sales are expected to show a 0.2% rise, down from 0.4%.

Stronger-than-expected numbers will likely drive the dollar higher. However, most investors expect this to be a short-term move. The dollar will become a more attractive investment because higher inflation will likely mean the Fed will have to increase interest rates more frequently in 2018.

Daily Swing Chart Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 90.455 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. This could lead to a fast move into the next main top at 90.765. This is the potential trigger point for an even stronger move into 92.36.

The main trend will change to down on a trade though 88.385, followed by 88.255 and the December 16, 2014 main bottom at 88.067.

The market is currently testing a short-term retracement zone at 89.42 to 89.18.

The two intermediate retracement zones are 89.51 to 89.81 and 90.31 and 90.79.

The main retracement zone is 91.04 to 91.70.

Daily Swing Chart Forecast

Based on the early trade, the direction of the dollar index today is likely to be controlled by the 50% level at 89.51.

A sustained move under 89.51 will indicate the presence of sellers with the first target 89.18. The daily chart opens up to the downside under 89.18 with the next targets 88.385, 88.255 and 88.07.

A sustained move over 89.51 will signal the presence of buyers. The first target is 89.81. This is the trigger point for a point for a further move into 90.31.

The index could breakout to the upside over 90.46 with targets clustered at 90.765, 90.79 and 91.04.