US Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – Next Trigger Point for Upside Breakout is 94.42

The U.S. Dollar finished higher against a basket of currencies last week. The move was primary driven by a weaker Euro. Gains were likely limited by a strong Japanese as well as well as a dip in U.S. Treasury yields.

June U.S. Dollar Index futures settled at 94.13, up 0.429 or +0.46%.

The Euro was pressured by geopolitical tension in Italy and Spain as well as weaker-than-expected economic data. The Japanese Yen was boosted by flight to safety buying related to concerns over a trade war between the United States and China, and the cancellation of the meeting between the United States and North Korea.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. The market is not in a position to change the main trend to down, but it is up 15 weeks from its last main bottom, which puts it in a position to form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 92.115 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to down on the weekly chart.

The contract range is 96.772 to 87.83. Its retracement zone at 93.36 to 92.30 is controlling the longer-term direction of the market. Trading above this zone is also helping to give the market an upside bias.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s price action, the direction of the June U.S. Dollar Index this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at 93.36.

A sustained move over 93.36 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for buyers to go after 94.42, the top from the week-ending November 10, 2017. Taking out this top will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the contract high at 96.77 the next major upside target.

A sustained move under 93.36 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the main 50% level at 92.30, followed closely by the minor bottom at 92.115. Taking out this level will shift momentum to the downside and could lead to the start of steep break.