US Dollar Index Forecast: DXY Holds Gains as Jobless Claims and Fed Speakers Loom; EUR/USD, GBP/USD

Market Overview

The broad-based US dollar maintained its upward trend and remained well supported by the robust US Retail Sales Data released by the US Census Bureau on Wednesday. As of now, the US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, is trading around the 99.15 level.

Moving ahead, the weekly US Initial Jobless Claims report will be published later on Thursday. The Federal Reserve policymakers are also set to speak, including Raphael Bostic, Michael Barr, Thomas Barkin, and Jeff Schmid.

US Economic Data Boosts Dollar Amid Fed Uncertainty

On the economic data front, the US showed stronger signs of growth in November. Retail Sales rose 0.6% after a small drop of 0.1% in October, beating the expected 0.4% increase. At the same time, the Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks wholesale prices, climbed 3.0% over the year, higher than the previous 2.8% and above expectations.

Even core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose 3.0%, showing inflation pressures remain steady. This stronger-than-expected data suggests the US economy is holding up well, with consumers still spending and prices gradually increasing.

These economic results are helping support the US dollar, as investors now expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady for several months. However, the dollar’s gains could be limited due to political concerns over the Fed’s independence. Fed Chair Jerome Powell criticized the Trump administration for trying to pressure the central bank, while Trump said he has no plans to fire Powell, keeping some uncertainty in the market.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The US Dollar Index is trading near 99.20 after holding above short-term trend support on the 4-hour chart. Price continues to grind higher within a rising structure, with higher lows intact despite recent consolidation.

The index is now pressing into the 99.25–99.30 resistance zone, where prior supply capped upside attempts. A clean break above this area would expose the 99.60 region.

On the downside, support sits at 99.00, followed by 98.85 near the rising trendline. RSI is holding above 50, signaling steady momentum rather than exhaustion.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is trading near $1.3440 as price consolidates below a descending trendline on the 4-hour chart. The pair has failed to build follow-through above the $1.3500 area, keeping upside capped for now.

Price is holding above the rising trendline and the 200 EMA, which continues to provide underlying support. Immediate support sits near $1.3390, followed by $1.3350. A break below this zone would weaken the short-term structure.

The leading indicator, Relative Strength Index (RSI), is hovering near 45, signaling neutral momentum rather than strength. The broader trend remains constructive while above $1.3350.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD is trading near $1.1630 after extending its pullback from the $1.1810 high. Price remains under pressure below a descending trendline on the 4-hour chart, keeping the short-term bias tilted lower.

The pair is trading below the 50 and 200 EMAs, which continue to act as dynamic resistance on rebounds. Immediate support sits at $1.1615, followed by $1.1560. A break below this zone would expose deeper downside risk.

The leading indicator, Relative Strength Index (RSI), is hovering near 40, showing weak momentum without oversold conditions. The structure remains corrective unless price reclaims $1.1700.