US Dollar Price Forecast: Dollar Steadies After JOLTS Beat – GBP/USD and EUR/USD

Market Overview

The US Dollar Index is trading close to $99.25, stabilizing after Monday’s mixed economic releases. The dollar managed to recover part of last week’s losses as traders reassessed labor-market strength and positioned cautiously ahead of mid-week wage and inflation-linked indicators.

Yesterday’s price action reflected limited conviction, but the stronger JOLTS report helped the dollar avoid deeper downside pressure.

Tuesday’s Data Recap: Labor Signals Show Mixed Momentum

The session opened with a modest improvement in business sentiment, as the NFIB Small Business Index rose to 99.0, slightly above expectations and higher than the previous 98.2 reading. Labor indicators delivered a more complex picture. ADP Weekly Employment Change came in at 4.8K, improving from last week’s –13.5K but still soft relative to broader employment trends.

The standout figure was the JOLTS Job Openings reading at 7.67M, beating the 7.14M forecast and nearly matching last month’s 7.66M. The stronger-than-expected job openings number signaled resilience in labor demand, helping support the dollar. Meanwhile, the CB Leading Index held steady at –0.3%, matching both forecasts and last month’s print, underscoring the economy’s slowing forward momentum.

Key Events Ahead: Wage Data in Focus

Traders now turn to Wednesday’s releases, which carry more market-moving potential. The Employment Cost Index is forecast at 0.9%, unchanged from the previous quarter, and will be closely watched for signs of wage-driven inflation.

President Trump’s scheduled remarks. The dollar’s next move will likely hinge on whether wage data signals persistent price pressures or reinforces the economy’s gradual cooling trend.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The U.S. Dollar Index is trading near $99.25, attempting to break out of its descending channel after reclaiming the $99.13 support level. Candlesticks show steady higher lows this week, and the price has now closed above the mid-channel resistance, suggesting early bullish pressure.

The next key level is $99.31, where multiple wicks show past rejection. A close above this zone could lift DXY toward $99.56 and the upper boundary near $99.81. If the index fails to hold above $99.13, support sits at $98.90, followed by $98.75.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is trading near $1.3300, holding above the midline of its ascending channel after a pullback from the $1.3385 resistance zone. Recent candlesticks show steady support around $1.3290, where price is reacting along the channel’s lower boundary. The pair is also hovering around the 20-EMA, signaling a neutral short-term bias.

A break above $1.3331 would revive bullish momentum and open a move toward $1.3385 and $1.3424. If price slips under $1.3269, support sits at $1.3227, the next key zone aligned with the channel floor.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD is trading near $1.1622, holding just above the lower boundary of its ascending channel. The recent candles show steady support around $1.1605, where price has reacted several times, signaling buyers are still defending the structure. On the upside, the key resistance sits at $1.1640, followed by $1.1663, which capped last week’s attempts to extend higher.

Price is currently below the 20-EMA, keeping short-term momentum slightly bearish, but the channel support remains intact. A close under $1.1605 would expose $1.1579 and $1.1555 as next downside targets.

RSI stays below 50, showing weak momentum, yet no clear breakdown. As long as the channel holds, EUR/USD retains the potential for another push toward $1.1640.