US Dollar Price Forecast: Fed Speeches and Tariff Tensions Lift DXY – GBP/USD and EUR/USD

Market Overview

During Asian trading hours on Wednesday, the US Dollar Index (DXY) edged higher, holding near 98.70 as investors awaited remarks from key Federal Reserve officials. Scheduled speeches from Susan Collins, Lisa Cook, and Mary Daly later in the day could provide insight into the Fed’s policy direction amid growing uncertainty.

Tariff Deadlines and Fed Chair Speculation Support Dollar

The dollar remains underpinned by renewed trade tensions. President Trump reaffirmed that elevated tariffs on select nations will be enacted by week’s end unless agreements are reached. These looming measures have heightened volatility, increasing demand for the dollar.

Trump also announced plans to nominate a new Fed Chair soon, excluding Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent from consideration.

The upcoming appointment, along with a temporary replacement for outgoing Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, adds a layer of political uncertainty that could impact monetary policy expectations.

Soft Economic Data Fuels Rate Cut Bets

Economic indicators continue to pressure the dollar. The ISM Services PMI slipped to 50.1 in July, below expectations, while a weak jobs report earlier this week has strengthened calls for rate cuts. Market pricing now reflects rising odds of a 25-basis-point cut in September.

Traders Eye Fed Commentary for Clarity

Investor focus now shifts to upcoming Fed speeches, which could define the dollar’s next move depending on the tone—hawkish or dovish.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The DXY is consolidating around the 98.75 level, finding support near the ascending trendline from late July and the horizontal zone at 98.60. Price remains wedged between the 50-EMA (98.92) and trendline support, with upside momentum weakening after the sharp rejection near 99.97.

A break above 99.18 is needed to revive bullish momentum, targeting 99.55 and 99.97. Conversely, if the index falls below 98.60, the next support zones lie at 98.14 and 97.83.

The bearish bias strengthens below the 100-EMA, but short-term structure remains neutral while price holds above the trendline. Keep watch for a breakout cue.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is trading just below 1.3313, facing resistance near the 100-EMA at 1.3321 after a modest rebound. Price action is consolidating in a narrow range, struggling to gain traction above the 50-EMA (1.3289).

A sustained break above 1.3313 could open the path toward 1.3386 and 1.3449. However, downside risks remain if bulls fail to clear the 100-EMA, with immediate support at 1.3226.

A break below this level would expose the 1.3144 zone. Momentum remains neutral, and a breakout from this consolidation phase is needed to confirm the next directional move.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD is consolidating near 1.1575 after breaking above the descending trendline, but it has yet to sustain momentum above the 1.1594 resistance level. Price is hovering just above the 50-EMA (1.1551) and 100-EMA (1.1567), signaling a neutral short-term bias.

A decisive break above 1.1594 would open the door to 1.1655 and 1.1711. However, if the pair loses support at 1.1522, bears may regain control, targeting 1.1457 and lower.

Overall, EUR/USD is at a pivotal zone — further direction depends on whether bulls can reclaim higher ground or if the trendline breakout proves to be a false signal.