US Dollar Price Forecast: Holds Above 98.60 After ADP Jobs +8K, GBP/USD and EUR/USD Outlook

Market Overview

US Data Steadies the Dollar Despite Softer Hiring

Yesterday’s US releases provided a couple of glimmers of support for the US dollar, but they were limited, to say the least. ADP weekly employment numbers were up by 8,000 – a far cry from last month’s 11,300, but still nowhere near a flatline.

The Fed keeps on saying that they will need to see some real progress on getting inflation under control before they start easing off the monetary brakes – and given that, rate cut expectations have been revised in response. Now markets are pricing in two rate cuts in 2026 – the first one coming in June rather than sooner as previously thought. That bit of good news has helped to prevent the dollar from taking a real beating

Of course, geopolitical tensions and all the uncertainty that comes with them are still very much weighing on sentiment – and they’re keeping the DXY’s gains in check.

Today’s Focus: Housing Data and Growth Signals

Looking ahead to today’s US releases – and just what they might tell us about which way the markets are headed – we have a doozy of a docket. Pending Home Sales (month-over-month) are expected to have dropped a pretty sharp -0.3%. That’s after an utterly exceptional +3.3% last time out, and shows just how much the housing sector is being dragged down by those high borrowing costs.

Meanwhile, Construction Spending (month-over-month) is forecast to be up a meager 0.1% – a bit less than the 0.2% we saw last month. So, it’s a slow but still positive show on investment spending.

So, today’s figures will be a key test of whether the dollar’s recent rebound will continue or if it’s just a temporary reprieve from all the uncertainty out there.

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Technical Analysis

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 98.587, holding firm above the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at 98.547. Price action shows resilience, with several neutral candlestick formations—spinning tops and doji—appearing just above this key Fib zone. These candles suggest indecision, but also signal that selling pressure is being absorbed rather than accelerating. The ascending trendline connecting higher lows remains intact, providing dynamic support and reinforcing the bullish structure.

Both the short-term and long-term moving averages are converging, hinting at a potential momentum shift. RSI is balanced near 50, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. If DXY maintains support above 98.547 and breaks above 98.729 (the 0.382 Fib level), it could target 98.876 and 99.022 next.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is trading near $1.34355, consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern formed by converging trendlines. This setup often precedes a breakout, though direction remains uncertain. Price action has been choppy, with recent candles showing indecision—spinning tops and doji—just above key support at $1.33921, suggesting buyers are defending this level.

The 50-period and 200-period moving averages are flattening, reflecting a lack of strong directional momentum. RSI is neutral, hovering near 50, which supports the consolidation narrative.

If GBP/USD breaks above $1.34895, it could target $1.35615 and $1.36114. A downside break below $1.33921 may open the door toward $1.33407 and $1.32899.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD is trading near $1.17170 after breaking out of a descending channel, signaling a potential trend reversal. The breakout was sharp, but price is now hovering just below the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at $1.17224. Several neutral candlestick formations—spinning tops and doji—have appeared in this zone, suggesting indecision and a possible pause before the next move. RSI is above 70, indicating overbought conditions and increasing the likelihood of a short-term pullback.

If EUR/USD holds above $1.16943 (the 0.382 Fib level), it may consolidate before attempting a push toward $1.17688 and $1.18089. A break below $1.16716 would weaken the bullish setup. Traders should watch for volume confirmation and bullish continuation candles to validate further upside toward $1.18488 and $1.18965.